The Penn State Nittany Lions will host the Oregon Ducks in a huge college football game on Saturday night. Both teams enter with perfect records and neither team has played a close game this season. One team will keep its unbeaten record by passing this huge test in Happy Valley. Who will that team be? Continue reading to get my Oregon vs Penn State prediction.
Our Oregon vs Penn State Pick
- Pick: Oregon +3.5 spread
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Oregon Ducks vs Penn State Nittany Lions
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 7:30 pm ET
- Venue: West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
- Broadcast: NBC / Peacock
Oregon vs Penn State Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Penn State −3.5 | Penn State −160 / Oregon +132 | 52.5 |
Key Storylines
- Home-Field & “White Out” Atmosphere: Penn State’s White Out weekend is legendary. The crowd noise, energy, and home environment tend to give PSU an edge. The Nittany Lions will hope that is the case again in this game.
- Oregon’s Offensive Momentum: The Ducks’ offense has been highly productive. Dante Moore has thrown for 962 yards, 11 touchdowns, and just one interception so far. Their offensive line has allowed almost no pressure, and their running game is solid with Jayden Limar leading the team in rushing. This is their biggest test so far and passing it would be a sign that this team is ready to compete for a national title.
- Penn State’s Balanced Attack & Defense: PSU has shown dominance in the trenches and the run game. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton have been carrying much of the load. Defensively, the Nittany Lions have been stingy, limiting scoring and pressuring opposing quarterbacks. Their defensive front and linebackers have created negative plays, and their turnover creation has been strong. The rest and preparation from the bye week could give PSU an advantage in energy and scheme execution.
- Previous Big Ten Championship Outcome: Oregon beat Penn State 45-37 in the Big Ten Championship Game last December. That result gives Oregon confidence in tight, high-stakes games against this opponent. But that win was at a neutral site. PSU has a home crowd this time around.
Quarterback Play
Dante Moore for Oregon enters with outstanding numbers. He’s displayed accuracy, poise, and strong rapport with his receivers. Penn State’s Drew Allar has been solid, though not quite as explosive as Moore. He’s thrown for 626 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. But PSU leans more heavily on its run game, reducing dependence on Allar in critical moments and letting their defense set the tone.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Penn State is 3-0 straight up this season, but 0-3 against the spread in their last three games overall.
- Oregon is 4-0 straight up, and has covered the spread in three of those four victories.
- Oregon is 2-2 on over/unders so far this season.
- Penn State has gone over the total in two of their first three games.
- Head-to-head: Oregon is 2-3 all-time against Penn State. The Ducks won the Big Ten Championship against Penn State in 2024.
Oregon vs Penn State Model Projection
Score Projection: Penn State 31 – Oregon 28
Win Probability: Penn State 58%, Oregon 42%
Final Thoughts
This game is going to be tight and I will take the points with Oregon here. Dante Moore has been incredible at quarterback and that should continue here. While I expect the Nittany Lions to win the game straight up, this should be a field goal game in either direction and getting a 3.5 should be a priority for bettors early this week.
