Oklahoma State and Arizona will play in a noon Pacific start on Saturday afternoon in college football. The Cowboys are 1-3 to start the season and are huge underdogs on the road against a 3-1 Arizona squad entering this matchup. Will the Cowboys put the Cats on upset alert, or will Arizona hold serve at home? Continue reading to get my Oklahoma State vs Arizona prediction.
Our Oklahoma State vs Arizona Pick
- Pick: Arizona -20.5
- Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Arizona Wildcats vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 3:00 PM EDT
- Venue: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
- Broadcast: TNT
Key Storylines
- Oklahoma State’s Struggles: The Oklahoma State Cowboys have lost three consecutive games. Their last outing was a 45–27 defeat to Baylor. They’ve allowed an average of 35 points per game, ranking them among the weakest defenses in the Power 4 conferences. They are 0-3 against FBS opponents this season.
- Arizona’s Defensive Strength: Arizona has a top-tier defense, allowing just 266.5 yards per game, which ranks 17th nationally. Their pass defense is particularly effective, surrendering only 166.8 yards per game.
- Coaching Changes at Oklahoma State: The Cowboys recently fired head coach Mike Gundy and defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, signaling internal turmoil and instability.
- Arizona’s Offensive Balance: Quarterback Noah Fifita leads a balanced offense that has thrown the football effectively in 2025. The Wildcats also average 168.5 rushing yards per game, providing multiple threats.
Quarterback Play
- Arizona: Noah Fifita has been efficient, completing 61.9% of his passes for 965 yards and eight touchdowns. His ability to manage the game and avoid turnovers has been crucial to Arizona’s success.
- Oklahoma State: The Cowboys have struggled at quarterback, with inconsistent play from Zane Flores leading to a lack of offensive rhythm. Their passing game ranks 92nd nationally, averaging 202 yards per game.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Arizona’s Recent Performance: Arizona has covered the spread in three of its first four games this year. The Wildcats have had three of their four games stay under the total.
- Oklahoma State’s Road Woes: Oklahoma State is 1-3 against the spread to this point in the season. They are 2-2 on over/unders in 2025.
Oklahoma State vs Arizona Model Projection
- Score Projection: Arizona 38 – Oklahoma State 14
- Win Probability: Arizona 89.8%, Oklahoma State 10.2%
Final Thoughts
The Arizona Wildcats should dominate the proceedings against the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday afternoon. Arizona is 3-0 at home on the year so far and they should bounce back nicely from taking their first loss of the year to Iowa State. I recommend laying the points with Arizona here, as they should continue the dismal season that Oklahoma State has had to endure through the first five weeks in college football.
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