New Mexico vs UCLA Pick & Prediction – 9/12/2025
New Mexico will go west to face UCLA in a Friday night college football matchup. The Lobos are 1-1 so far this season and will look to get their first upset win of the year against a UCLA team that is 0-2 coming into this matchup at the Rose Bowl. Here, I take a closer look at both teams going into this contest and give you my New Mexico vs UCLA prediction for Friday’s game.
Our New Mexico vs UCLA Pick
- Pick: New Mexico +15.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New Mexico Lobos vs UCLA Bruins
- Date & Time: Friday, September 12, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
- Broadcast: BTN
Key Storylines
- Jason Eck’s debut was a spirited effort at Michigan but three interceptions from QB Jack Layne stalled two promising second-half drives inside the red zone in that game. New Mexico bounced back with a win over Idaho State and will try to get their first FBS win of the season here.
- UCLA’s offense was held to 210 yards against Utah. They followed that performance up by losing on the road to UNLV. UCLA is a favorite here but they are still in danger of dropping to 0-3 on the season.
- Tennessee transfer quarterback Nico Iamaleava leads the Bruins in rushing yards through two games. They need to get more out of their running backs or UCLA could be on upset alert on Friday night.
Quarterback Play
Jack Layne’s first starts under Eck at New Mexico have been a mixed bag. He is 44/68 passing this season for 363 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions. We aren’t holding Layne’s struggles against Michigan against him. But this game is another test against a Big Ten opponent and he will need to be more secure with the football to avoid another disappointing result.
Nico Iamaleava’s time at UCLA is two games old and he has taken two losses. Iamaleava has 391 passing yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He is also averaging 53 yards per game on the ground and his ability to break containment could be a weapon against the worst team UCLA has played so far.
Betting Trends & H2H
- UCLA is 0-2 against the spread early in the season.
- New Mexico is 1-1 against the spread so far in 2025.
- These teams have played just once all-time. UCLA won that game in the 2002 Las Vegas Bowl.
New Mexico vs UCLA Model Projection
Score Projection: New Mexico 21 – UCLA 34
Win Probability: New Mexico 17% — UCLA 83%
Final Thoughts
UCLA shouldn’t have too much trouble getting their first win of the season at home here. But I am inclined to take the points with the New Mexico Lobos at the Rose Bowl in this game. The Bruins will get their first win with Iamaleava as their quarterback, but I think the superior running game of New Mexico will help them to bleed the clock and hang around in this non-conference contest.
