The Michigan Wolverines open their 2025 season at home on Saturday night against the New Mexico Lobos. The Wolverines come in as overwhelming favorites with new starting quarterback Bryce Underwood under center. Michigan has an overwhelming advantage in depth and will hope to use that to avoid an opening-night upset. Before the action begins from Ann Arbor, continue reading to get my New Mexico vs Michigan prediction.
Our New Mexico vs Michigan Pick
- Pick: Over 49.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New Mexico Lobos vs Michigan Wolverines
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
- Broadcast: NBC / Peacock
New Mexico vs Michigan Odds
| Spread | Total |
|---|---|
| Michigan –34.5 | 49.5 |
Key Storylines
- Michigan enters the season with a promising freshman quarterback in Bryce Underwood. The Wolverines will be expected to improve through the air after last season’s struggles putting the ball in the air.
- New Mexico opens a new chapter under coach Jason Eck. Eck has had success rebuilding Idaho’s program in the FCS. This move will likely help the Lobos in the long run but it is not likely to help against one of the top teams in college football.
- Michigan enters this week ranked 14th in the country and they will look to make a statement that will help them move up in the rankings next week. That will likely require them to win this game by 35+ points.
Quarterback Play
Michigan’s Bryce Underwood was the number one overall prospect of his class. He will have high expectations right out of the gate for the Wolverines and he will have to stay composed in order to impress in his first game against an inferior New Mexico team. We could see Jack Layne get the start at quarterback for New Mexico. Layne transferred from Idaho to follow his coach and he will have a huge test in his first game of FBS football.
Betting Trends & H2H
This is the first time that New Mexico and Michigan have played one another in college football. Michigan is expected to clobber the Lobos in their first-ever meeting but upsets are always a possibility in college football.
New Mexico vs Michigan Model Projection
Score Projection: Michigan 42 – New Mexico 14
Win Probability: Michigan 97%, New Mexico 3%
Final Thoughts
Michigan should dominate from start to finish in this game. There is an overwhelming talent gap between these two teams. On top of that, I think that Michigan will be incentivized to put the ball in the air early and often to try and get Underwood comfortable against a team that he shouldn’t struggle much against. Because of that, I think the over is the best bet for this game, as Michigan should hang a big number on the scoreboard to begin the Underwood era in Ann Arbor.
