The New Mexico State Aggies and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will do battle in Conference USA action on Saturday. The Hilltoppers are 4-1 in Conference USA play this season, but that only has them in third place in their division in the conference, making a win at home here a must for their conference title hopes. Before this matchup begins from Bowling Green, continue reading to get my New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky prediction.
Our New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky Pick
- Pick: Western Kentucky −8.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New Mexico State Aggies vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 1, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Houchens Industries‑L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, Kentucky
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
The Hilltoppers are off to a solid 6‑2 start and enter this game with momentum after beating Louisiana Tech in their last game. The Hilltoppers are averaging 29.5 points per game while allowing 23.6 points per game. New Mexico State is 3‑4, averaging 22.1 points per game, and 24.0 points allowed per game. New Mexico State’s offense has struggled to impose its will, especially on the ground, and the Hilltoppers should have the edge here as a result.
Western Kentucky’s home-field should help them in this game as well. They’ve won 19 of their last 22 home games in November, showing consistency on their home turf. New Mexico State has lost six of their last seven road contests against conference foes, which raises concern for the Aggies heading into hostile territory.
Quarterback Play
Aggies quarterback Logan Fife has thrown for 1,721 yards, with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions so far. His ability to protect the football is a question mark, and the running game for the Aggies has been weak at only 68.7 rushing yards per game. This puts the pressure squarely on Fife’s shoulders going into this contest.
Hilltoppers quarterback Maverick McIvor has thrown for 1,863 yards, 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions. McIvor responded nicely to his poor performance against FIU a couple of weeks ago and will try to keep his team moving in the right direction.
Betting Trends
- Western Kentucky is 6-2 against the spread so far this season.
- New Mexico State is 3-4 against the spread for the year.
- New Mexico State has gone under the total in four of its first seven games.
- Western Kentucky is 4-4 on over/unders so far this season.
New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky Model Projection
Score Projection: Western Kentucky 30 – New Mexico State 20
Win Probability: Western Kentucky 72%, New Mexico State 28%
Final Thoughts
My expectation for this game is for Western Kentucky to win by double-digits on their home turf. The Hilltoppers have a much btter passing attack and are less likely to turn the ball over through the air. I will lay the points with Western Kentucky, as they should stay one game back of Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State in the loss column in the Conference USA standings.
