Michigan State vs Minnesota Pick & Prediction - 11/1/2025
Updated November 1, 2025
Updated November 1, 2025
The Michigan State Spartans will take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Big Ten competition on Saturday afternoon. The Spartans are still in search of their first conference win, while the Golden Gophers are looking to bounce back at home after a rough outing against Iowa. I have broken this game down from all angles and you can find my Michigan State vs Minnesota prediction below.
The Golden Gophers enter this contest after a 41-3 loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes. Minnesota’s offense is averaging 23.9 points per game, but they couldn't get anything going against the Hawkeyes last week. Minnesota ranks near the top of the country in total defense, giving up roughly 292 yards per game. They will try to use their defense and home-field advantage to shut down the Spartans in this contest.
The Spartans are still winless in conference play and have stumbled through recent losses to UCLA, Indiana, and Michigan. Their offense is led by quarterback Aidan Chiles, who has not been good enough, though protection issues are partially to blame for that. He’s been sacked 21 times this season, and the Spartans need to do a better job of protecting Chiles if they are going to get some wins in conference play.
Minnesota’s defense should have a strong advantage against an MSU offense that simply cannot sustain drives on a regular basis. But Michigan State is in desperation mode and will do everything they can to try and beat the Golden Gophers.
Aidan Chiles (MSU): Chiles’ dual-threat ability (10 passing TDs, 6 rushing TDs) makes him a weapon at times. But his supporting cast and offensive line need to provide him with more help. Against Minnesota’s defense, he may struggle to stay upright and generate explosive plays.
Drake Lindsey (Minnesota): The Golden Gophers’ quarterback has thrown for 1,546 yards with 10 TDs and six interceptions. He has been turnover-prone at times and had a very poor showing at Iowa. But if he can keep mistakes to a minimum in this game, Minnesota could get back on track after last week's debacle.
Score Projection: Minnesota 27 – Michigan State 17
Win Probability: Minnesota 62%, Michigan State 38%
I am going with Minnesota to win at home and to cover the spread as a 3.5-point favorite. The Golden Gophers are not going to light up the scoreboard, but they should be able to score into the mid-20s or better, which should be more than enough for them to win by over a field goal margin. Expect Chiles to struggle and for Minnesota to get to six wins and bowl eligibility here.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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