The Michigan State Spartans and the USC Trojans will square off Saturday night in an interesting Big Ten showdown. Both teams are unbeaten at 3-0, but their strengths and weaknesses differ quite a bit. Which style of play will win out when these Big Ten opponents put their unbeaten records on the line? Continue reading to find out what I think, as I give you my Michigan State vs USC prediction for Saturday.
Our Michigan State vs USC Pick
- Pick: Over 55.5
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Michigan State Spartans vs USC Trojans
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 11:00 PM ET
- Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
- USC’s Offensive Firepower: The Trojans are averaging 55 points per game in their first three games, ranking among the top offenses nationally. They aren’t likely to score that big in this game since they are not playing Big Ten competition. But USC’s offense will still be expected to put up numbers here.
- Michigan State’s Efficiency & Risks: MSU is 3-0 and has been efficient, particularly in the passing game. Aidan Chiles has thrown six touchdowns to just one interception so far. But their secondary and pass defense have been vulnerable, giving up large chunk plays through the air. They will need to fix that to keep up with the Trojans this weekend.
- Home-Field Advantage: USC playing at the Coliseum gives them an edge in most cases. That should be the case again this week against a Michigan State team that has not gone on the road yet this season.
Quarterback Play
Aidan Chiles has been sharp for Michigan State. He has completed 71.6% of his passes for 656 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception through three games. He has some mobility, with 123 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown to go with his passing numbers. But Michigan State’s pass protection needs to hold up against USC’s pass rush for Chiles to play well here. USC signal caller Jayden Maiava hasn’t thrown any interceptions this season. He’s made big plays and has six touchdown passes so far. This is his biggest test as a full-time starter in Big Ten play so far.
Betting Trends & H2H
- USC is 2-1 against the spread heading into this game.
- Michigan State is 0-3 against the spread through three weeks.
- The all-time series between these teams is tied 4-4. They haven’t played since 1990.
Michigan State vs USC Model Projection
Score Projection: USC 41 – Michigan State 24
Win Probability: USC 85%, Michigan State 15%
Final Thoughts
USC should be able to slow down Aidan Chiles en route to a win at home. But I think that the over is a better wager than taking the Trojans to cover the spread. I don’t think that Michigan State’s defense will do enough to hold Maiava and the Trojans down, while Chiles should do just enough late in this game to help the game hit its total and beyond.
