Michigan State and Nebraska will meet in Big Ten play on Saturday afternoon. Both of these Big Ten squads are off to 3-1 starts and will try to get a statement win over one another in Lincoln. Can the Cornhuskers improve to 4-1 as heavy home favorites, or will Sparty pull off the upset on the road? Here, you will find my answer to that question as I bring you my Michigan State vs Nebraska prediction.
Our Michigan State vs Nebraska Pick
- Pick: Michigan State +13.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Michigan State Spartans vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 4, 2025, 4:00 PM ET
- Venue: Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, NE
- Broadcast: FS1
Key Storylines
- Quarterback Play: Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola leads the nation’s third-best passing offense, with nearly 1,200 passing yards this season. Michigan State’s Aidan Chiles has shown flashes of brilliance but faces a tough Nebraska defense here. Chiles has nine touchdown passes to just one interception and will try to avoid turning the ball over and making life easy on the Nebraska defense.
- Defensive Struggles: Michigan State’s defense has been vulnerable, ranking 116th in pass defense. That could be exploited by Nebraska’s aerial attack. Nebraska gave up 30 points last week to the Michigan Wolverines and will look to bounce back from that performance in this contest at home.
- Who Will Bounce Back?: Both teams suffered their first losses of the season in their last games. Michigan State was beaten by USC, while Nebraska lost to Michigan. Both teams will try to get back on the right track in this contest to get to 1-1 in Big Ten play.
Betting Trends & H2H
- ATS Trends: Michigan State is 1-3 against the spread so far this season. Nebraska is 2-2 against the spread going into this contest.
- Home/Road Splits: Michigan State is 0-1 on the road going into this game. Nebraska is 3-1 at home for the year.
- Over/Under Trends: The over has hit in three of the first four games for both of these teams this season.
Michigan State vs Nebraska Model Projection
Score Projection: Nebraska 31 – Michigan State 21
Win Probability: Nebraska 75.4%, Michigan State 24.6%
Final Thoughts
Nebraska shouldn’t have too much of a problem getting the win at home in this game to get back to .500 in conference play this season. But I do think that Michigan State will keep the margin respectable enough to cover the number. Chiles has been better in the early stages of this season than he was last year and should be able to muster just enough offense to cover the number in this game. I’ll take the points with Sparty.
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