The Marshall Thundering Herd (1-2) will travel to Murfreesboro to face the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-2) on Saturday. Both teams are seeking to rebound from 1-2 starts to the season and looking to grab their second win in a row. Marshall is a slight favorite on the road here, but neither team has proven themselves all that trustworthy early in the year. Continue reading to get my thoughts on this game, including my Marshall vs Middle Tennessee prediction.
Our Marshall vs Middle Tennessee Pick
- Pick: Marshall -3
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Marshall Thundering Herd vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 7:00 PM EDT
- Venue: Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, TN
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
Marshall’s Offensive Struggles
Marshall has faced challenges on offense early on. They rank 124th in FBS in red zone efficiency, converting just 63.6% of their opportunities. They also sit at 130th in third-down conversion rate at 26.1%, leading to difficulties in sustaining drives. Quarterback Zion Turner needs to improve his consistency to lead the offense effectively.
Middle Tennessee’s Defensive Resilience
Despite a 1-2 record, Middle Tennessee’s defense has been commendable. They rank 70th in red zone defense, limiting opponents to a 35.9% success rate. Their defensive backfield is highlighted by Juwon Gaston, who recorded two interceptions in their recent victory over Nevada. The defense will need to continue its strong play to keep the Blue Raiders competitive.
Quarterback Play
Zion Turner (Marshall)
Turner has accumulated 183 passing yards with no touchdowns and one interception this season. His dual-threat capability adds an extra dimension to the offense, as he has also rushed for 110 yards and a touchdown. But improving his passing efficiency will be crucial for Marshall’s success moving forward.
Nicholas Vattiato (Middle Tennessee)
Vattiato has thrown for 548 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions for MTSU. Vattiato is a more traditional pocket passer than Turner. The Thundering Herd will likely try to use that to their advantage by sending pressure at the Blue Raiders.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Marshall is 2-1 against the spread in its first three games.
- Middle Tennessee is 1-2 ATS this season.
- The total has gone under in two of Marshall’s first three games.
- The total has gone under in two of Middle Tennessee’s three games.
- Marshall holds a 6-5 lead in the all-time series against MTSU.
Marshall vs Middle Tennessee Model Projection
Score Projection: Marshall 24 – Middle Tennessee 20
Win Probability: Marshall 60%, Middle Tennessee 40%
Final Thoughts
This should be a very close game between Marshall and Middle Tennessee. Marshall is going to try to control this game on the ground, both with their running backs and through quarterback runs. I expect them to do a good job of slowing this game down and grounding the passing attack of MTSU. I’ll lay the points with the Thundering Herd in this matchup from Murfreesboro.
