Kansas State vs Arizona Pick & Prediction – 9/12/2025
The Kansas State Wildcats and Arizona Wildcats will meet in Big 12 play on Friday night. Kansas State is looking for its first win of the season against an FBS opponent and Arizona is looking to stay unbeaten on the year. Before this battle of the Wildcats begins in Tucson, I tell you what I think is going to happen with this Kansas State vs Arizona prediction.
Our Kansas State vs Arizona Pick
- Pick: Arizona Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Kansas State Wildcats vs Arizona Wildcats
- Date & Time: Friday, September 12, 2025, 9 p.m. ET
- Venue: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
- Kansas State is off to a 1-2 start and their lone win came against an FCS North Dakota team. The Wildcats are already 0-1 in Big 12 play after losing in Ireland to Iowa State.
- Arizona is 2-0 against soft competition. They beat up on Hawai’i and FCS Weber State to begin their season and their real tests will begin with this game to open their conference season.
- Kansas State is playing in their first true road game of the season. Arizona has been at home for every game this season and they are hoping to take advantage of being at home again here.
Quarterback Play
Kansas State’s Avery Johnson has moved the ball through the air effectively through three games. He is nearing 800 passing yards with six touchdowns and one interception. Johnson can also move the ball with his legs when needed. But his play has not translated into wins and he needs to be more effective in the red zone for K-State to improve as this season goes on.
Arizona will rely on Noah Fifita at quarterback in this contest. Fifita has completed 30 of his 45 pass attempts with six touchdowns and no interceptions. Continuing to avoid turnovers will be huge for Fifita and his team on Friday against an opportunistic K-State defense.
Betting Trends & H2H
- K-State is 0-3 against the spread so far this season.
- Arizona is 2-0 against the spread to begin this year.
- Arizona is 2-0 at home in 2025. Kansas State is playing its first true road game.
- Arizona is 5-2-1 all-time against K-State. But Kansas State won the last meeting between these teams in 2024.
Kansas State vs Arizona Model Projection
Score Projection: Kansas State 27 – Arizona 30
Win Probability: Kansas State 45%, Arizona 55%
Final Thoughts
This is the first real test of the season for the Arizona Wildcats. I think that they take advantage of that opportunity and win outright despite being a slight underdog. Arizona’s offense has been more clinical in scoring range early in the year. And while they have played weaker competition, I expect that to continue for Arizona and for K-State to drop to a disappointing 0-4 and 0-2 in Big 12 competition for the year.
