The Houston Cougars and Oregon State Beavers will meet in Week 5 of the college football season on Friday night. With Houston entering the game undefeated and Oregon State struggling to find their footing, the Cougars are a heavy favorite in this matchup. Before kickoff from Corvallis, keep reading to get my breakdown of this game, including my Houston vs Oregon State prediction.
Our Houston vs Oregon State Pick
- Pick: Houston Cougars -13.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Cougars vs Oregon State Beavers
- Date & Time: Friday, September 26, 2025, 10:30 PM EDT
- Venue: Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR
- Broadcast: ESPN
Houston vs Oregon State Odds
| Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Houston -13.5 |
| Moneyline | Houston -550, Oregon State +380 |
| Total | Over/Under 47.5 |
Key Storylines
- Houston’s Offensive Balance: Quarterback Conner Weigman is off to a strong start, leading the Cougars to a 3-0 record early in the year. Weigman is contributing significantly both in the air and on the ground. His ability to extend plays and make decisive runs adds a dynamic element to the Cougars’ offense.
- Oregon State’s Struggles: The Beavers have yet to secure a win this season, facing challenges in both offensive execution and defensive consistency. The Beavers are 0-4 on the year and have lost all four of their games by nine points or more. Their inability to close out games has been a recurring issue.
- Houston’s Road Test: Houston is on the road for the second time this season. Their first road game was a win over the Rice Owls. But this game has the potential to be tougher than a matchup with a program like Rice, even if Oregon State has struggled early in the year.
Quarterback Play
Conner Weigman has been spectacular for Houston, showcasing impressive passing stats. His decision-making under pressure has been instrumental in the Cougars’ undefeated start. Weigman has four touchdown passes without an interception and he will try to continue his excellent start here.
Oregon State’s Maalik Murphy has been a high-risk and high-reward quarterback for the Beavers. He has thrown six touchdown passes through four games but has also thrown five interceptions. He has to be more careful with the football without completely giving up on his aggression in attempting to move the ball vertically.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Houston is 3-0 straight up and against the spread to start the season.
- Oregon State is 0-4 straight up and 0-4 against the spread for the year.
- Houston is 2-1 to the over through three games.
- Oregon State is 2-2 in the over/under market in 2025.
Houston vs Oregon State Model Projection
- Score Projection: Houston 41 – Oregon State 13
- Win Probability: Houston 81.3%, Oregon State 18.7%
Final Thoughts
Houston should be able to win this game convincingly on the road to improve to 4-0 on the year. The Cougars have a well-rounded offense and should be able to put points on the board against an Oregon State team that has allowed 39 points per game through four contests. The Cougars should dominate this game and drop Oregon State to 0-5 heading into October.
