Florida vs Miami Pick & Prediction – 9/20/2025
The Florida Gators and Miami Hurricanes will meet at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday. Miami is off to a 3-0 start with multiple wins over ranked teams. They will look to protect their top-five ranking with win over a Gators team that is still in search of their first win over an FBS team this season. Here, I break down this all-Florida showdown in college football and bring you my Florida vs Miami prediction.
Our Florida vs Miami Pick
- Pick: Miami -6.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Florida Gators vs Miami Hurricanes
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- Broadcast: ABC
Key Storylines
- Miami is off to a 3-0 start to the season. They have wins over ranked Notre Dame and South Florida teams. The Hurricanes look like a championship contender early in the year and will try to prolong the woes of their in-state rivals.
- Florida won their season opener against the LIU Sharks from the FCS. Since then, they have dropped two straight games to FBS opponents. South Florida and LSU have both beaten the Gators over the last two weeks and Florida will try to stop the bleeding and get to 2-2.
- Miami’s Carson Beck is playing well early in the year. The Georgia transfer has avoided turnovers for the most part and is leading a Miami offense that has been more explosive than Beck’s Georgia Bulldogs were a season ago.
Quarterback Play
Carson Beck has delivered exactly what Miami wanted: poise, accuracy, and chain-moving efficiency. He has thrown seven touchdown passes to just two interceptions and the Hurricanes will need another big game from Beck to move to 4-0. DJ Lagway’s raw tools continue to pop off the screen during Gators games. But he has five touchdown passes to six interceptions on the year. He needs to take better care of the football if the Gators are going to avoid a third straight loss.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Miami is 2-1 against the spread to start the season.
- Florida is 1-2 against the spread during the 2025 season.
- Florida has gone under the total in all three of its games this season.
- Miami is 2-1 to the over for the season.
- Miami is 30-27 all-time against Florida. The Hurricanes won the last meeting between these teams in Gainesville in 2024.
Florida vs Miami Model Projection
Score Projection: Florida 20 – Miami 27
Win Probability: Florida 35% – Miami 65%
Final Thoughts
Florida brings a talented young quarterback into battle in Miami. But Lagway’s talent has been overshadowed by erratic decisions with the football. Carson Beck isn’t spectacular, but he has a much higher floor than Lagway in this contest. I will lay the points with Miami in this matchup, as they should generate some talk that they are a serious championship contender by defeating the Gators.
