Florida vs LSU Pick & Prediction – 9/13/2025
Florida will travel to Baton Rouge for a primetime SEC showdown against LSU on Saturday. Both programs enter Week 3 with very different momentum. LSU sits undefeated at 2-0 and ranked No. 3 in the country, while Florida is reeling from a shocking upset against South Florida that dropped them to 1-1 and out of the top 25. The stakes are high for both teams going into this game and you can find my Florida vs LSU prediction below.
Our Florida vs LSU Pick
- Pick: Under 54.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Get Your Bonus Bets: Use BetMGM promo code ATSBONUS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet doesn’t win!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Florida Gators vs LSU Tigers
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 13, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
- Broadcast: ABC
Key Storylines
- Florida must rebound after being stunned 18-16 by South Florida in Week 2.
- LSU has looked sharp through two games, powered by veteran QB Garrett Nussmeier and the rest of the Tigers’ passing attack.
- True freshman DJ Lagway is still settling in at quarterback for the Gators and faces his toughest road test yet.
- Tiger Stadium at night is one of the most hostile environments in college football and the energy in that building should be off the charts here.
Quarterback Play
Garrett Nussmeier has been efficient for LSU through two games, throwing for 469 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception with a QBR of 76.4. LSU has only averaged 20 points per game early in the season but Nussmeier has avoided costly turnovers so far this year. His experience and confidence make him one of the top passers in the SEC this season.
Florida’s DJ Lagway has shown flashes of talent but has also made rookie mistakes. The freshman has thrown for 342 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception in two starts. Against South Florida, he posted 222 yards with one touchdown but also threw a costly interception. His dual-threat ability gives Florida some added upside but playing under the lights in Baton Rouge will be a different level of pressure.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Florida is 1-1 against the spread so far this season.
- LSU went 1-1 against the spread this year.
- LSU is 7-1 in its last 8 home games.
- Florida is 2-8 in its last 10 trips to Baton Rouge.
- LSU has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings against Florida.
Florida vs LSU Model Projection
Score Projection: LSU 31 – Florida 20
Win Probability: LSU 72%, Florida 28%
Final Thoughts
LSU’s experience and depth should prove too much for a young Florida team still trying to find its identity under freshman quarterback DJ Lagway. But the Gators’ defense has been solid. Containing Garrett Nussmeier and LSU’s passing game for four quarters is a tall order, especially in Death Valley at night. I think Florida’s defense will help them to hang around in this game and this game should stay under the total thanks to the defenses on both sides standing tall.
