The Cincinnati Bearcats (2–1) will travel to Lawrence to face the Kansas Jayhawks (3–1) on Saturday afternoon. Kansas already has a Big 12 win under its belt to start the season, while Cincinnati is playing its first conference game of the season here. Before these conference rivals take the field on Saturday, continue reading to get my thoughts on this matchup, including my Cincinnati vs Kansas prediction on the gridiron.
Our Cincinnati vs Kansas Pick
- Pick: Kansas -4.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cincinnati Bearcats vs Kansas Jayhawks
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 12:00 PM EDT
- Venue: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS
- Broadcast: TNT
Cincinnati vs Kansas Odds
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | +4.5 | +160 | Over 57.5 |
| Kansas | -4.5 | -190 | Under 57.5 |
Key Storylines
- Cincinnati’s High-Powered Offense: The Bearcats have been explosive, averaging 40.3 points per game and 438.3 total yards per game. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby leads the offense, contributing both in the air and on the ground. But Cincinnati struggled in their only real test of the year against Nebraska and will need to prove that their offense can compete against power conference competition.
- Kansas’ Balanced Attack: The Jayhawks average 37.3 points per game and 407 total yards per game. Their offense is complemented by a defense allowing just 16.5 points per game, showcasing their ability to control both sides of the ball. Kansas held West Virginia to just 10 points in their last outing and will look for a repeat performance on defense here.
- Turnover Battle: Kansas has recovered eight fumbles this season, the second-most in the nation. Cincinnati will need to protect the ball to avoid giving Kansas advantageous field position.
Quarterback Play
Brendan Sorsby has been a dual-threat for Cincinnati, leading the team with 655 passing yards and 175 rushing yards. He has accounted for 12 total touchdowns between passing and rushing scores and Kansas will need to be hyper-vigilant to prevent him from breaking containment. Kansas’ Jalon Daniels has been sharp this season as well. He has completed two-thirds of his passes on the year and has 12 passing touchdowns to just two interceptions.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Kansas is 2-2 against the spread despite being 3-1 straight up on the year.
- Cincinnati is 2-1 against the spread this season.
- Three of Kansas’ first four games have all gone under their totals.
- Cincinnati has stayed under the total in two of their first three games.
- Kansas is 2-1 all-time against Cincinnati. The Jayhawks haven’t hosted the Bearcats in football since 1995.
Cincinnati vs Kansas Model Projection
Score Projection: Kansas 34 – Cincinnati 24
Win Probability: Kansas 69.2%, Cincinnati 30.8%
Final Thoughts
While Cincinnati’s offense has been impressive, Kansas’ balanced attack and strong defensive play give them the edge in this matchup. The Jayhawks’ ability to control the game on both sides of the ball, along with their home-field advantage, make them a solid pick to cover the spread as far as I’m concerned. Cincinnati will experience some regression on offense against a power conference opponent and the Jayhawks will move to 2-0 in Big 12 play.
