The California Golden Bears (3-0) will travel to Snapdragon Stadium to face the San Diego State Aztecs (1-1) on Saturday night. This non-conference matchup is a chance for Cal to go into ACC play with an unbeaten record. But they will need to avoid an upset at the hands of an in-state competitor to get to 4-0 before conference play. Here, I break down this matchup and bring you my Cal vs San Diego State prediction for Saturday night.
Our Cal vs San Diego State Pick
- Pick: California -14.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: California Golden Bears vs San Diego State Aztecs
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 10:30 PM EDT
- Venue: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Key Storylines
- California’s Offensive Surge: Freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has been a revelation, leading the Bears to a 3-0 start with impressive performances through the air. He will look to lead his team to a fourth straight win with his efficiency here.
- San Diego State’s Offensive Struggles: The Aztecs have faced challenges in their passing game, with quarterback Jayden Denegal yet to find consistency through the air. Their offense has been limited in explosive plays, leading to a 1-1 record without any wins over FBS opponents.
- Defensive Matchup: California’s defense, anchored by linebacker Luke Ferrelli, has been effective in limiting opponents. San Diego State’s defense will need to step up to contain California’s high-powered offense.
Quarterback Play
California: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has demonstrated poise and accuracy, throwing for 780 yards and six touchdowns in Cal’s first three games. His ability to manage the game and make critical throws will be tested on the road against San Diego State’s defense.
San Diego State: Jayden Denegal has shown flashes of potential but has struggled with consistency. He has two touchdown passes and no interceptions but will likely need to throw the ball more often and for more yards to have success here.
Betting Trends & H2H
- California: The Golden Bears are 2-1 against the spread to start this season.
- San Diego State: San Diego State is 1-1 against the spread through its first two games of the season.
Cal vs San Diego State Model Projection
Score Projection: California 35 – San Diego State 17
Win Probability: California 81%, San Diego State 19%
Final Thoughts
California enters this game as a strong favorite, thanks to a dynamic offense led by freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and a defense that has shown plenty of toughness. San Diego State, while playing at home, has struggled to find an offensive rhythm and will face a formidable challenge in containing California’s passing attack. Given the current form for both teams, California is my pick to cover the spread and get a convincing victory on the road.
