The Boise State Broncos (1-1) will travel to Colorado Springs to face the Air Force Falcons (1-1) on Saturday. Both teams are off to 1-1 starts this season. This is the first conference game of the season for Boise State, while Air Force looks to improve to 1-1 in Mountain West Conference play. Here, I take a closer look at this Mountain West matchup and give you my Boise State vs Air Force prediction for Saturday.
Our Boise State vs Air Force Pick
- Pick: Boise State -10.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boise State Broncos vs Air Force Falcons
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, 7:00 PM EDT
- Venue: Falcon Stadium, Colorado Springs, CO
- Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Key Storylines
- Boise State’s Balanced Offense: The Broncos have averaged 500 yards per game. They have a potent rushing attack led by Sire Gaines, Dylan Riley, and Malik Sherrod. Quarterback Maddux Madsen struggled in Boise State’s opener and will look for his best performance against an FBS opponent this year.
- Air Force’s Offensive Situation: The Falcons run an option offense and that means running the ball the vast majority of the time. We should see the Falcons try to boss Boise State around at the line of scrimmage. If they can do that, they could put Boise on upset alert here.
- Defensive Vulnerabilities: Air Force’s defense has shown weaknesses, particularly in their secondary, which was exposed in their recent loss to Utah State. Boise State’s aerial threats could exploit those gaps.
Quarterback Play
Boise State’s Maddux Madsen has three passing touchdowns and hasn’t thrown an interception yet this season. He had a rough game against South Florida in Boise’s opener but will be expected to play better here against a vulnerable Air Force secondary. Quarterback play isn’t much of a priority for Air Force. They will keep the ball on the ground for the most part, with Josh Johnson throwing only occasionally.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Recent Matchups: Boise State has won six of the last seven meetings against Air Force, including a 27-19 victory in their last encounter in 2023.
- Home/Away Performance: Air Force has a 2-3 record at home against Boise State. Boise State is 0-1 on the road this year and Air Force is 1-0 at home for the season.
- Over/Under Trends: Boise State is 1-1 on totals this season. Air Force has gone over the total in their first two games.
Boise State vs Air Force Model Projection
- Score Projection: Boise State 34 – Air Force 21
- Win Probability: Boise State 78.7%, Air Force 25.6%
Final Thoughts
Boise State enters this game with a more well-rounded offense than Air Force and their triple option attack. The Broncos will be able to run the ball when it suits them and put the ball in the air when they need to, something Air Force doesn’t do as well. I’ll lay the points with Boise State, as they should win convincingly in their Mountain West opener.
