The Ball State Cardinals and UConn Huskies will meet in Connecticut on Saturday afternoon. Both teams enter the contest with 1-2 records and without a win over FBS competition yet this year. One of these programs is required to get an FBS win this week. Who will it be? Find out who I like in this game by reading my Ball State vs UConn prediction below.
Our Ball State vs UConn Pick
- Pick: Ball State +21.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Ball State Cardinals vs UConn Huskies
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, at 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field, East Hartford, CT
- Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Key Storylines
- UConn’s Defensive Woes: Despite strong offensive output, UConn’s defense has underperformed. They surrendered over 500 total yards to Delaware and allowed big plays against Syracuse as well. Their two losses have both come in overtime and an inability to get stops in scoring range could be a problem again this week.
- Ball State’s Offensive Ineffectiveness: Ball State is at or near the bottom nationally in several key offensive categories. They average 12.3 points per game and were blown out in their two games against FBS opponents so far. In fairness, those games were against Auburn and Purdue, so we could see better from the Cardinals here.
- Tempo & Props for Scoring: UConn’s passing game is capable of blowing games open. But if UConn’s defense doesn’t step up, we could be in for a high-scoring game regardless of who comes out on top.
Quarterback Play
Joe Fagnano of UConn has thrown for 865 yards on a good completion percentage, with five touchdowns and no interceptions so far. His deep connections with wide receivers, especially Skyler Bell, are giving UConn’s passing offense a big boost. Ball State’s quarterback Kiael Kelly has had moments, but has understandably struggled against power conference opponents early in the year. We will learn a lot about Kelly in this game as he tries to keep up with the production of Fagnano.
Betting Trends & H2H
- UConn is 8-1 straight up in their last 9 home games.
- Ball State is 0-5 straight up in their last 5 road games.
- UConn is 1-1-1 against the spread to start the season.
- Ball State is 2-1 ATS so far this year.
- Ball State is 4-0 all-time against UConn, with their most recent win over the Huskies coming in 2022.
Ball State vs UConn Model Projection
Score Projection: UConn 35 – Ball State 17
Win Probability: UConn 90%, Ball State 10%
Final Thoughts
It seems highly unlikely that UConn will lose this game outright at home to Ball State. But I think that Ball State is going to play better football than they have early in the year. I’ll take the points with the Cardinals, as their offense should benefit from not playing more power conference competition.
