Two teams from Arkansas will do battle in college football on Saturday as the Arkansas State Red Wolves take on the Arkansas Razorbacks. Both of these teams beat FCS opponents in their season openers and will look to pass their first test against FBS competition here. Before the game begins in Fayetteville, continue reading to get my Arkansas State vs Arkansas prediction.
Our Arkansas State vs Arkansas Pick
- Pick: Arkansas -22.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Arkansas Razorbacks
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025, 5:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: War Memorial Stadium, Little Rock, AR
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Arkansas State vs Arkansas Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas −22.5 | Arkansas −3000, Arkansas State +1200 | 62.5 |
Key Storylines
- Arkansas started the season with a dominant 52-7 victory over Alabama A&M. They dominated both sides of the ball in that game but might not have as easy a night against their first FBS opponent of the season.
- Arkansas State started their 2025 season with a 42-24 win against Southeast Missouri State. This is also not a performance that taught us a lot about the Red Wolves given the quality of competition involved.
- The point spread is huge going into this game. Arkansas will try to cover the number in a way they could not in their first game of the season and that might not be an easy task if they can’t get off to a fast start and build a lead.
Quarterback Play
- Arkansas – Taylen Green: Green completed 24/31 passes (77.4%) for 322 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions in Week 1. He also added 41 rushing yards. I don’t think we are going to see any six-touchdown games here but Green was impressive in his season debut.
- Arkansas State – Jaylen Raynor: Raynor delivered an accurate performance in Week 1. He completed 26/32 passes (81%) for 345 yards and three scores. This game could look a lot different for him against SEC-level competition.
Betting Trends & H2H
- ATS Trends: Arkansas State is 1-0 ATS this season. Arkansas is 0-1 ATS.
- Over/Under Trends: Arkansas State went over the total in their first game of the year. Arkansas stayed under the total in their season opener.
- Head-to-Head History: There is no head-to-head history between these programs going into this weekend’s game. They have never played against one another up until this point.
Arkansas State vs Arkansas Model Projection
- Score Projection: Arkansas 37 – Arkansas State 13
- Win Probability: Arkansas 96% — Arkansas State 4%
Final Thoughts
We don’t have anything of substance from this season to go off of when betting this game. Both teams beat up on FCS competition last week and we’ll learn a lot more about them in this contest. But based on what we’ve seen from both schools in the recent past, I’ll go with Arkansas to win this game handily and cover the spread at home.
