The stage is set for a Sunday evening CFL showdown as the Toronto Argonauts (0-3) hit the road to face the Ottawa Redblacks (1-2) at TD Place Stadium on June 29, 2025. Both teams enter after rough starts to their seasons. But Ottawa will to build on last week’s breakthrough win, while Toronto is desperate to claim its first victory. Here, I break down this East Division matchup and give you my Toronto Argonauts vs Ottawa Redblacks prediction.
Our Toronto Argonauts vs Ottawa Redblacks Pick
- Pick: Ottawa Redblacks -2.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Toronto Argonauts vs Ottawa Redblacks
- Date & Time: Sunday, June 29, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: TD Place Stadium, Ottawa
- Broadcast: TSN & CBSSN
| Line | |
|---|---|
| Spread | Ottawa –2.5 |
| Moneyline | Toronto +120 / Ottawa –140 |
| Total | 52.5 |
Key Storylines
Recent form
- Toronto has stumbled out of the gate, dropping three straight: a 28-10 loss at Montreal, a 29-19 home defeat to Calgary, and a 39-32 loss to Saskatchewan. Their offense has shown flashes, but inconsistency and poor defending have hurt them.
- Ottawa’s 1-2 start included losses to Saskatchewan (31-26) and Montreal (39-18), but last week’s 20-12 win at Calgary snapped their two-game skid and injected confidence into the locker room.
Quarterback play
Toronto’s Nick Arbuckle is leading the offense in Chad Kelly’s absence. He’s leading the league in passing with 841 yards through three weeks, but he has more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4), which is a problem. Ottawa’s Dru Brown missed last week’s game due to injury and whether or not he can play this week could help determine the outcome of this contest.
Anticipated matchup advantages
- Arbuckle has been turnover prone at QB for the Argos, which could be a problem against a group of ballhawks on the Ottawa defense. CJ Coldon is tied for the league lead with two interceptions, while Adrian Frye leads the league with three forced fumbles.
- Running game edge: Ottawa has leaned on William Stanback to impose its run game, with Stanback averaging 5.5 yards per carry through three weeks.
Recent team streaks
- Toronto has lost three consecutive games by an average of 11.7 points per game.
- Ottawa enters with positive momentum after last week’s win.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Toronto is 0-3 both straight up and against the spread this season.
- Ottawa has gone 1-2 both straight up and ATS to start the year.
- Over/Under trends: 2 of Toronto’s 3 games have stayed under their respective totals, while 2 of Ottawa’s 3 games have gone over.
Toronto Argonauts vs Ottawa Redblacks Model Projection
- Score Projection: Ottawa 26 – Toronto 20
- Win Probability: Ottawa 62%, Toronto 38%
Final Thoughts
This Week 4 game will test Toronto’s resolve and Ottawa’s ability to capitalize at home. Given the quarterback instability for the Argos, Toronto’s defensive issues, and Ottawa’s strong home performances, bettors should lean toward the Redblacks to cover the spread, with Stanback leading his team from the backfield in a 26-20 victory.
