The early WNBA season rolls into Phoenix on Sunday night as the Washington Mystics close a demanding West Coast swing against the Phoenix Mercury. Both clubs opened 2025 with encouraging flashes, yet arrive into this game off of losses. Washington let a pair of late leads slip in consecutive games at Golden State and Las Vegas, while Phoenix tasted defeat for the first time on Friday in Seattle after careless fourth-quarter turnovers. Both teams will look to bounce back in this Mystics vs Mercury contest from The Valley.
Mystics vs Mercury Preview
The Mystics sit at 2-2 after road losses by two points or fewer on Wednesday and Friday. Their offense averages 82.5 points behind a quick tempo and a spread-the-floor approach that accentuates rookies Kiki Iriafen and Sonia Citron. Iriafen has ripped down 10.8 rebounds per game while posting three straight double-doubles, already a franchise rookie record. Citron adds 15.8 points with confident perimeter shooting.
However, Washington travels to the desert severely short-handed. All-Star caliber guard Brittney Sykes, who poured in 26.3 points and 5 assists across the first three games, missed the Las Vegas game with a right lower-leg issue and is listed day-to-day. Interior anchors Shakira Austin (concussion protocol) is questionable and Aaliyah Edwards (low-back contusion) remains unavailable. Rookie guard Georgia Amoore is out for the season with an ACL tear.
Phoenix owns a 2-1 record after splitting a home-and-home sequence with Seattle. New acquisition Satou Sabally has electrified the desert crowd, scoring 27, 25, and 15 in her first three games while shooting 44% from the field and burying two threes per night. Veteran forward Alyssa Thomas continues to stuff stat sheets at 18.3 points, 7.7 boards, and 6.7 dimes, including a 16-11-7 line in Friday’s defeat. Phoenix’s defense has tightened under coach Nate Tibbetts, surrendering just 74.0 points on average and holding opponents below 40% shooting in two of three contests.
Important absences linger for the Mercury as well. Four-time All-Star Kahleah Copper underwent knee surgery on May 16 and will miss several weeks, while Natasha Mack is sidelined by a back injury. Even so, Phoenix’s frontcourt depth has withstood the blow thanks to Thomas’ playmaking from the elbow and Sabally’s versatility on both ends. The Mercury have also dominated the glass through three games, outrebounding foes by plus-6.7, a margin that could balloon against a Mystics group potentially missing two premier rebounders.
Betting Insights
- Point Spread: Phoenix Mercury -7.5
- Moneyline: Mercury -300, Mystics +270
- Total Points: 161.5
- Mystics record against the spread: 3-1
- Mercury record against the spread: 1-2
- Mystics games Over Under: 2-2
- Mercury games Over Under: 1-2
Washington’s cover in Friday’s three-point loss at Las Vegas as a 15.5-point underdog pushed its early ATS mark to 3-1. That success largely came with Sykes in uniform, but they did compete with Vegas without Sykes. The Mystics managed just 72 points on 38 percent shooting against the Aces without their lead guard and posted only nine fastbreak points over the past two outings. A repeat of that offensive performance would place pressure on an already thin rotation to step up on defense.
Phoenix, meanwhile, is 1-2 against the number, failing to cover as a road dog in Seattle despite 20 forced turnovers. The Mercury’s deliberate halfcourt pace, ranked 10th in possessions per game, usually drags totals downward, yet bookmakers have elevated Sunday’s figure thanks to Washington’s quick tempo.
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Mystics vs Mercury Prediction
With Copper sidelined, Phoenix relies heavily on Sabally and Thomas. That tandem should flourish against a Mystics interior missing Edwards and possibly Austin. Thomas’ ability to initiate offense from the high post will pull Stefanie Dolson away from the paint, opening cutting lanes for Sabally. On the perimeter, Lexi Held and Sami Whitcomb can make Washington pay if it collapses defensively. Offensively, the Mystics’ hopes hinge on Sykes’ availability. If she sits again, Citron faces a relentless on-ball assignment from Monique Akoa Makani and Whitcomb, likely leading to late-clock possessions and rushed looks.
The Mercury possess the healthier core, home-court advantage, and a discernible edge on the backboards. Expect Phoenix to dictate tempo, grind the Mystics down in the halfcourt, and gradually pull away after halftime, much as Seattle did against them on Friday.
Projection: Phoenix Mercury 83, Washington Mystics 72.
Suggested wager: Mercury -7.5 and Under 161.5.
