The Washington Mystics travel to Las Vegas on Thursday, June 26, 2025, for a matchup against the Aces that has significant implications for both clubs. Coming off impressive recent performances, the Mystics look to continue their momentum, while the Aces face some adversity on the second game of a back-to-back. Continue reading to get my breakdown of this matchup, including my Washington Mystics vs Las Vegas Aces prediction.
Our Washington Mystics vs Las Vegas Aces Pick
- Spread: Mystics +8.5
- Total: Over 162.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Washington Mystics @ Las Vegas Aces
- Date & Time: Thursday, June 26, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- Broadcast: Prime Video
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Aces −8.5 | Aces −470 | Mystics +340 | 162.5 |
Key Storylines
- Mystics’ Rising Form: Washington has won two straight games and three of their last four. Their most recent game was an upset win over the league-leading Minnesota Lynx, taking advantage of the absence of MVP favorite Napheesa Collier in that contest.
- Aces in Flux: Star A’ja Wilson needs more consistent help if Las Vegas is going to be a championship contender once again. The Aces’ lack of depth has been a big reason for their up-and-down season.
- Injury Absences: Mystics rookie Georgia Amoore is out for the season with an ACL tear, while star guard Brittney Sykes is questionable. The Aces are without Megan Gustafson and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus.
- Playoff Positioning: Both clubs are around .500, making a win in this game huge for both sides.
- Going Back-to-Back: This is the second game of a back-to-back for the Aces, who host the Connecticut Sun on Wednesday.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Latest showdown: The Aces won 75-72 at home over the Mystics in the first game of the season series between these teams.
- ATS Trends: Vegas is a disappointing 4-9 against the spread this year, while the Mystics have exceeded expectations with a 9-6 ATS record.
- Total Trends: The Aces have gone 7-6 to the over on the year, while 9 of Washington’s 15 games have stayed under their respective totals.
- Home/Road Splits: The Mystics are 2-5 on the road this year, including a loss in Las Vegas, while the Aces are 4-3 on their home floor.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive Efficiency: The Aces are 9th in the WNBA in offensive rating, while the Mystics rank 11th in that category.
- Defensive Presence: Washington’s defense has been superior to that of Las Vegas, with the Mystics sitting in 7th in defensive rating and the Aces in 9th.
- Pace of Play: Both teams play with moderate pace. Vegas is 5th in the W in tempo, while the Mystics rank 7th.
- Potential Mismatches: Mystics’ bigs like Kiki Iriafen own strong field goal efficiency and the lack of bigs to back up Wilson could make Washington’s frontcourt depth a concern for the hosts here.
Mystics vs Aces Model Projection
Score Projection: Washington Mystics 85 – Las Vegas Aces 91
Win Probability: Mystics 38%, Aces 62%
Final Thoughts
The Mystics carry momentum and confidence coming into this game, while the Aces could have tired legs playing for the second night in a row. The Aces should win this game when all is said and done, but we think it will be a close one in either direction. Take the points with Washington, as well as the over, in what should be a competitive matchup from Michelob Ultra Arena.
