The Washington Mystics will head to Connecticut to take on the Sun at Mohegan Sun Arena on Thursday night. The Mystics are slight favorites here but the Sun are coming off a win over Washington in the last game these teams played. I have analyzed this matchup in the WNBA and you can find my Mystics vs Sun prediction below.
Our Mystics vs Sun Pick
- Pick: Connecticut Sun to Win
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Washington Mystics @ Connecticut Sun
- Date & Time: August 21, 2025, 7 p.m. ET
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
Mystics vs Sun Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mystics –2.5 | Mystics –142 / Sun +120 | 157.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Mystics remain in playoff contention going into this game. They are in 10th place in the WNBA standings and are 1.5 games back of the eighth and final playoff spot. This game is huge for their postseason hopes.
- Connecticut has struggled all season long. They have the league’s worst record but they enter this game after an 80-69 win over Washington on Tuesday.
- Connecticut has been playing more competitive basketball lately. They are 2-1 in their last three games and nearly beat the Indiana Fever in their one loss over that span.
- Sonia Citron leads the Mystics at 15.3 points and is in contention to be this year’s WNBA Rookie of the Year. She should see more responsibility after Brittney Sykes was traded to the Seattle Storm.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Mystics hold a 2-1 lead in their season series against Sun. But Connecticut won the last game between these teams on Tuesday.
- Washington is 6-11 on the road so far this season.
- Connecticut has a 5-12 record on their home floor.
- Washington is 17-18 against the spread so far this season.
- The Sun have gone 18-16 against the spread in 2025.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Sonia Citron | Over 16.5 points | Citron’s offensive workload should continue to increase as she gains experience and after the Sykes trade. |
| Tina Charles | Over 14.5 points | Charles’ veteran leadership should play well against the inexperienced frontcourt of Washington. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Sun are dead last in the WNBA in offensive rating and have moved up to 11th in the league in defensive rating.
- The Mystics are 11th in the league in offensive rating and eighth in the league in defensive rating.
- These teams rank eighth and ninth in the WNBA in pace and they shouldn’t influence the total too far in either direction based on their tempo.
Mystics vs Sun Model Projection
Score Projection: Connecticut 83 – Washington 77
Win Probability: Connecticut Sun 52%, Washington Mystics 48%
Final Thoughts
We should see Washington play better basketball than they did against the Sun on Tuesday. But I’m not convinced that they will win on the road here. Connecticut is playing much more respectable basketball of late and I think it’s worth a shot to take the Sun as a home underdog.
