The Minnesota Lynx welcome the Seattle Storm to Target Center on Tuesday night for a Western Conference showdown that already carries early-season playoff ramifications. Minnesota has opened 4-0 thanks to Napheesa Collier’s scoring avalanche and a late-game toughness that produced comeback victories over Dallas and Connecticut. Seattle, meanwhile, shook off an ugly opening-night loss with three straight wins, punctuated by Sunday’s 102-82 demolition of the Las Vegas Aces. Continue reading to get our best bet for Storm vs Lynx from Minneapolis.
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Storm vs Lynx Preview
Seattle hits the road at 3-1 and full of confidence after lighting up Las Vegas for 60% shooting and assisting on 32 of their field goals. Veteran forward Nneka Ogwumike has been unstoppable out of the high post, averaging 20.5 points on 59% to start the year, while point guard Skylar Diggins supplies both tempo and playmaking. Her 24-point, 14-assist gem against Phoenix tied a franchise assist mark. Sixth-woman Erica Wheeler’s 21-point outburst Sunday showed that coach Noelle Quinn can stretch defenses with their second unit, a wrinkle the Storm lacked a year ago. Defensively, Seattle allows 76 points per game, second-best in the league behind the Mercury.
The Lynx will counter with the hottest scorer in the WNBA. Collier’s 29.5-point average leads the league, and she saved her squad Friday by pouring in 10 of her 33 during a 23-2 closing run to stun Connecticut 76-70. Minnesota’s offense (87.25 PPG) thrives on dribble-handoff action that frees Collier and guard Courtney Williams for mid-range looks, but it is Jessica Shepard’s passing at the elbows that has kept the ball humming. Even when perimeter shots misfire, a concern with Kayla McBride out for the first four games, the Lynx crash the glass and get to the stripe. Coach Cheryl Reeve’s club ranks second in free-throw rate and owns a +9.75 scoring margin thanks to late-game defensive intensity.
Seattle dominated the paint 52-38 against Las Vegas, but Minnesota’s front line is longer and deeper than Vegas’ interior setup. Expect Reeve to crowd Ogwumike with help off non-shooters while daring the Storm to beat switches by hitting threes. Conversely, Quinn cannot rely on single coverage on Collier. She will likely send early doubles, betting that Minnesota’s streaky wings won’t punish rotations. Whether or not McBride plays will be key in this game, as she practiced on Sunday. Pace will also matter: Seattle averages 14 fast-break points, while Minnesota prefers half-court execution. Whichever side imposes tempo could seize control.
Betting Insights
- Spread: Lynx –6.5 (-110), Storm +6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Lynx –238, Storm +210
- Total: 156
This line reflects Minnesota’s home-court edge (2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS in Minneapolis) and Collier’s MVP-level tear, yet Seattle’s 3-1 ATS start suggests the Storm have been undervalued. The total opened slightly lower than both teams’ combined scoring average of 166, signaling respect for two defenses ranked top four in efficiency.
Notable Trends
- Minnesota is 6-2 straight-up and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings with Seattle.
- The Under is 5-2 in Lynx home games dating back to last postseason, yet the over has cashed in four of the last six head-to-head clashes.
- Seattle has covered five of its last six road games when receiving at least six points.
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Storm vs Lynx Prediction
Market sentiment favors the undefeated Lynx, but the matchup angles point to a tighter contest. Seattle’s ability to generate quality looks early in the shot clock should negate some of Minnesota’s half-court defensive strengths, and Diggins gives the Storm a clear edge at the point of attack against Williams. The bigger question is whether Quinn’s rotating bigs can keep Collier under 30 without sacrificing rebounding position. Expect Seattle to blitz every pick-and-roll, live with secondary shooters, and push off long rebounds.
Ultimately, Minnesota’s closing execution, buoyed by the home crowd, should see them through, but asking them to cover this number against a Storm team that fired at 60% two nights ago feels like a bridge too far. The Lynx will prevail in a high-energy duel, but the play is Seattle +6.5. Given both clubs’ uptempo spurts and the Storm’s recent offensive surge, a small sprinkle on the Over 156 is also justified.
Final score projection: Lynx 88, Storm 84.
