The Seattle Storm will visit the Connecticut Sun at Mohegan Sun Arena on Monday night. Seattle enters this game with a 2-1 record against the Sun this year. But the Sun will look to even the season series at home in this contest on the second day of a back-to-back. Continue reading to get my analysis for this inter-conference matchup in the WNBA, including my Storm vs Sun prediction.
Our Storm vs Sun Pick
- Pick: Connecticut Sun +11
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Seattle Storm @ Connecticut Sun
- Date & Time: July 28, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
- Broadcast: ESPN3
Storm vs Sun Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Storm –11 | Storm –625 / Sun +455 | 158.5 |
Key Storylines
The Connecticut Sun got just their fourth win of the season on Sunday by beating the Golden State Valkyries at home. That 31-point win was by far the best performance of the season for the Sun. But they are on the second game of a back-to-back here and that could prevent the Sun from playing to their full potential for a second straight game.
The Seattle Storm are coming off a loss to the Washington Mystics on the road on Saturday. Seattle is 15-11 for the season and have a chance to improve on their record against the team with the worst record in the WNBA. Seattle will look to use their advantage at the guard spots in this contest. Skylar Diggins and Gabby Williams were both All-Stars this year and should have the advantage against the perimeter defense of Connecticut.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Seattle holds a 2‑1 record over Connecticut so far this year. But the Sun won in their lone meeting in Connecticut this season. Connecticut is 12-12 against the spread this year despite their 4-20 record straight up. Seattle is also a .500 team against the spread at 13-13.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Storm rank ninth in the WNBA in offensive rating. They are second in the league in defensive rating and sixth in net rating.
- The Sun are dead last in the WNBA in offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating.
- Seattle is 7-6 on the road for the season.
- Connecticut is 3-9 at home on the year.
Storm vs Sun Model Projection
Score Projection: Seattle Storm 84 – Connecticut Sun 75
Win Probability: Seattle Storm 75%, Connecticut Sun 25%
Final Thoughts
The Storm are clearly the better basketball team and should have no problem winning this game in Connecticut. But I am going to take the points with the Sun in a game that should be decided by 7-10 points. Tina Charles and Marina Mabrey are finally on the floor with each other more consistently. That should help them to score enough to hang around in this game even if the Storm ultimately win it.
