The Phoenix Mercury will visit the Washington Mystics on Sunday night. The Mercury enter on a three-game losing streak after playing a brutal portion of their schedule. They will look to snap that streak against a Mystics team that is firmly in the hunt to make the WNBA playoffs. Continue reading to get my Mercury vs Mystics prediction for Sunday’s game.
Our Mercury vs Mystics Pick
- Pick: Washington Mystics +7.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Washington Mystics
- Date & Time: July 27, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
- Venue: CareFirst Arena, Washington, D.C.
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
Mercury vs Mystics Odds
| Betting Market | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | PHX –7.5 |
| Moneyline | PHX –305, WSH +245 |
| Total | 164.5 |
Key Storylines
- Phoenix has lost three straight games entering this matchup. They lost to a trio of title contenders in the Liberty, Dream, and Lynx during that stretch. They will aim to bounce back on the road in this contest.
- DeWanna Bonner has returned to bolster the Mercury’s roster. She has scored in double-digits in three of her five games with the Mercury.
- Washington is 12-12 this season and enter Sunday in seventh place in the WNBA standings. They are coming off a win over the Seattle Storm and will look for another home win over a team in a position to make the playoffs here.
- Mystics forward Aaliyah Edwards is dealing with a wrist injury and her status for this game is unknown at this time.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- The Mercury lead the season series 1-0 over the Mystics. They won 68-62 at home over Washington on May 25.
- Phoenix has gone 13‑11 ATS this season. Washington is 12‑12 ATS for the year.
- The Mercury are 6-5 on the road this season. Washington is a very strong 8-4 at home.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Mercury are sixth in the league in offensive rating. Golden State is 10th in offensive rating.
- Phoenix ranks fifth in the league in defensive rating. Washington is not far behind in seventh.
- Both teams are not afraid of playing with pace. The Mercury are third in the W in pace and the Mystics are fifth in pace.
- The big key to this game from a matchup standpoint is the Washington frontcourt against the duo of Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally. Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen have to avoid foul trouble or they could cause problems for their team with Edwards questionable.
Mercury vs Mystics Model Projection
Score Projection: Phoenix Mercury 83 – Washington Mystics 79
Win Probability: Phoenix 54%, Washington 46%
Final Thoughts
I think that the Mercury will win this game when the final buzzer sounds in Washington. But I don’t think that win will be a walk in the park by any stretch of the imagination. Washington should be able to cover the spread thanks to their young group of interior players who can control the glass and generate paint points for them.
