As two of the WNBA’s powerhouse teams meet in Brooklyn, all eyes are on Thursday’s showdown between the Phoenix Mercury and the New York Liberty. The reigning champs New York (10‑1) bring a spotless 6‑0 record at home, while Phoenix (9‑4) is riding a three‑game win streak and is looking to make a statement against an elite opponent. Here, we make our Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty prediction ahead of what should be a good game between championship contenders.
Our Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Pick
- Spread: Mercury +11.5
- Total: Over 161.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Sportsbook Bonus of the Game: DraftKings Sportsbook Promo Code – Bet $5, Get $300 in bonus bets if your first bet wins!
Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets If Your Bet Wins
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+ 
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Promo Code: Click To Claim
Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets If Your Bet Wins
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Promo Code: Click To Claim
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ New York Liberty
- Date & Time: Thursday, June 19, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
- Broadcast: Prime Video
| Market | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | New York –11.5 |
| Moneyline | New York –750 / Phoenix +525 |
| Total | 161.5 |
Key Storylines
- Phoenix has found life since their stars returned. Kahleah Copper is back, Alyssa Thomas is distributing at will, and Satou Sabally is leading the team at 19.9 PPG. They’ve won three straight, including an 83‑75 road win over Connecticut last night.
- New York is firing on all cylinders. Sabrina Ionescu delivered 34 points in their latest win over the Atlanta Dream, while Jonquel Jones is back on the floor after missing some time due to injury.
- Natasha Cloud faces her former team for the first time since being traded. She’s averaging 6 APG and playing strong defense.
- Mercury are on the second leg of a back‑to‑back, while the Liberty are well‑rested at home.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first game of the season series between these two teams.
- New York is 6-5 against the spread this season.
- Phoenix has gone 7-6 ATS so far in 2025.
- The Liberty are 6-5 to the over this year.
- Phoenix is dead even on over/unders, going 6-6-1.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop Line | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Sabrina Ionescu | Over 19.5 PTS | Ionescu dropped 34 points in each of her past two games and is on a roll. |
| Satou Sabally | Over 20.5 PTS | Leading Phoenix at 19.9 PPG, she’s essential for their scoring. Should remain assertive against NY’s frontcourt. |
| Natasha Cloud | Over 5.5 AST | Averaging exactly 6 assists this season, she should set her current teammates up for success against her former team. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
New York has the league’s top offensive rating (110.8) and the best defensive rating (92.3). They rank first in pace but are still efficient in half‑court sets. Phoenix will need to be careful with the basketball against a Liberty team that ranks first in points off turnovers at 19.2 per game.
In transition, Phoenix could exploit New York’s occasional lapses. In the paint, Stewie and Jones vs Sabally and Thomas is a height mismatch, but Phoenix will counter with quickness on the perimeter and Thomas’ playmaking.
Phoenix vs New York Model Prediction
Score Projection: Phoenix 80 – New York 86
Win Probability: New York 83%, Phoenix 17%
Final Thoughts
Brooklyn’s Liberty look set to dominate at home again with a rested roster and depth across multiple positions. Phoenix has impressed with its recent surge, but the back‑to‑back and travel fatigue make keeping it close a tall order. Phoenix should be able to keep this game respectable, but we like the over better as both teams should have a decent night offensively.
