The New York Liberty host the Phoenix Mercury on Friday night at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. This potential playoff preview features two of the top three teams in the WNBA standings. Phoenix has dominated the season series between these teams so far. Will that continue in this contest? Continue reading to get my Mercury vs Liberty prediction for Friday night.
Our Mercury vs Liberty Pick
- Pick: New York Liberty -5.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ New York Liberty
- Date & Time: July 25, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York
- Broadcast: ION
Mercury vs Liberty Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty –5.5 | Liberty –250, Mercury +205 | 171.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Liberty welcome back Finals MVP Jonquel Jones after her ankle injury. She looks sharp and gave them a boost in their recent win over the Indiana Fever.
- The Mercury enter healthy with no players on the injury report. They have Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas, and Satou Sabally all active now.
- Phoenix is coming off back-to-back losses to the Lynx and Dream. They begin a tough five-game road trip here.
- New York sits at 16‑6 and has won four games in a row. They could have Emma Meesseman for this game after she signed with the team post-Eurobasket.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- New York is 0‑2 versus Phoenix this season. But Jonquel Jones was out for those games due to an ankle injury.
- The defending champion Liberty are 10-11-1 against the spread this season. The Mercury are 13-10 against the spread in 2025.
- Both teams have had the majority of their games go over their totals this year. The Liberty are 12-10 to the over for the season. Phoenix is 12-10-1 to the over.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Liberty rank second in the WNBA in offensive rating behind the Minnesota Lynx. Phoenix is sixth in the league in that category.
- New York is also second to the Lynx in defensive rating. Phoenix holds the league’s fifth position in that department.
- Both of these teams play an uptempo style of basketball. The Liberty rank first in the league in pace and Phoenix is third. That is great news for the over.
- The Liberty size advantage in the paint with Jones and Stewart could be a decisive mismatch in favor of the Liberty tonight.
Mercury vs Liberty Model Projection
- Score Projection: Liberty 87 – Mercury 78
- Win Probability: Liberty 72 %, Mercury 28 %
Final Thoughts
I urge bettors not to get too hung up on the previous results between these teams this season. Both teams were banged up in those games and we should see very different versions of both sides tonight. I think that the Liberty getting Jonquel Jones back is so important to their identity as a team. She will help the Liberty get another impressive home win here and I recommend laying the points with the defending champs at Barclays Center.
