This WNBA Playoffs series between the Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty has reached a critical point with Game 2 set for Tuesday night. The Liberty stole Game 1 in Phoenix in overtime, but their win came with a major price when Breanna Stewart left that game after injuring her knee in overtime. Her status for Game 2 could determine the outcome of this matchup. Continue reading to get my thoughts on this game, including my Mercury vs Liberty Game 2 prediction.
Our Mercury vs Liberty Game 2 Pick
- Pick: Mercury Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ New York Liberty
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 17, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
- Broadcast: ESPN
Mercury vs Liberty Game 2 Odds
| Betting Line | Value |
|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty −2 |
| Moneyline | Liberty −130, Mercury +110 |
| Total Points (O/U) | 159.5 |
Key Storylines
- Injury to Breanna Stewart: Stewart scored 18 points in Game 1 but left in overtime after hurting her left knee. She is listed as a game-time decision. Her mobility and defensive presence are critical to New York’s chances. If she is absent or limited, Phoenix has a chance to extend this series to a Game 3.
- Phoenix offensive struggles in Game 1: The Mercury shot 32.5% from the field in Game 1 and Satou Sabally was just 2/17 from the floor. They have to be more effective offensively to avoid a sweep.
- New York’s experience & home edge: As defending champions, the Liberty have been in high-pressure playoff moments many times. They’re at home now, where they were very strong in the regular season a 17-5. Finishing the series here gives them rest and avoids a Game 3 on the road.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Season Series: Phoenix won the regular season head-to-head 3-1. But the Liberty won the opening game of this series and could get to 3-3 against the Mercury if they close out this series on Tuesday.
- ATS and Over/Under: The Liberty covered the spread as 1.5-point road favorites in Game 1. The total stayed under 164.5 in Game 1 despite there being an overtime period played.
- Home/Road Splits: The Liberty enter this game with a 17-5 record at home on the season. Phoenix went 12-10 on the road and is 1-1 in Brooklyn this year.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- These teams both ranked highly in defensive rating among playoff teams that played on Sunday. They struggled offensively and the team that can break through the most consistently in this game will get the result they need.
- This game had the slowest pace of the four games that were played in the WNBA playoffs over the weekend.
Mercury vs Liberty Game 2 Model Projection
| Score Projection | Win Probability | |
|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Mercury | 85 | 50% |
| New York Liberty | 82 | 50% |
Final Thoughts
If Breanna Stewart is unable to play, the Liberty could lose this game and this series over the next few days. New York struggled with an injured Stewart earlier in the season and I think we see that here as well. I’ll take the Mercury to win on the road and force a decider in The Valley.
