The Minnesota Lynx will host the Phoenix Mercury to open their WNBA Semifinals series on Sunday. The Lynx swept the Golden State Valkyries in the first round and have been strong both at home and away all season long. The Mercury survived a tough first-round series versus the defending champion New York Liberty in three games. Here, I break down Game 1 of this best-of-five series and give you my Mercury vs Lynx Game 1 prediction.
Our Mercury vs Lynx Game 1 Pick
- Pick: Mercury +7.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 21, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: ESPN
Mercury vs Lynx Game 1 Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Lynx –7.5 | Lynx -325 / Mercury +260 | 158.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Lynx were dominant in the regular season, finishing with the best record in the league and sweeping their first-round series. They have home-court advantage and have been steady under pressure all year long.
- The Mercury advanced by knocking off the defending champion Liberty. Their defense forced New York into poor outside shooting, and Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally stepped up in Games 2 and 3 after struggling in their Game 1 loss.
- The regular-season series between these teams favored Minnesota, which went 3-1 vs Phoenix in 2025. However, many of those games were before Phoenix was fully healthy.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Past meetings
Minnesota won three out of four games in the regular season against Phoenix. Two of the three wins for the Lynx were by double-digits. But Phoenix was missing key pieces in several of those games and this contest could look very different as long as the Mercury stay healthy.
ATS and O/U records
Minnesota is 1-1 against the spread in the playoffs so far. They covered the spread as a home favorite in Game 1 against Golden State. They defeated the Valkyries on the road in Game 2 but could not cover the number. Phoenix went 2-1 against the spread in the first round. They covered the spread in their two wins and failed to cover the spread in their one loss.
Home/road splits
Minnesota is 21-3 at home across all of their games this season. They went 20-2 at home in regular-season games, they lost the Commissioner’s Cup final at home, and they won their lone playoff game at Target Center. Phoenix is 13-10 away from home, going 12-10 in their regular-season road games and 1-0 on the road in the playoffs.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Lynx had the best offensive rating in the first round of the WNBA Playoffs. They ranked fourth of the eight teams in defensive rating.
- Phoenix ranked sixth in offensive rating in the opening round of the playoffs and was number one in defensive rating.
Mercury vs Lynx Game 1 Model Projection
Score Projection: Minnesota Lynx 88 – Phoenix Mercury 82
Win Probability: Minnesota Lynx 70%, Phoenix Mercury 30%
Final Thoughts
Minnesota should be able to win Game 1 of this series at home. But I think the Mercury will cover the spread as an underdog. The Mercury are healthy and they have playmakers all over the floor that should help them stay within striking distance down the stretch. This is going to be a competitive series, starting with a close game in Game 1.
