The Phoenix Mercury will visit the Golden State Valkyries on Tuesday night in a Western Conference showdown in the WNBA. These teams enter Tuesday’s play in the top eight in the WNBA standings and will look to help their playoff positioning with a win. Before Phoenix and Golden State do battle in San Francisco, continue reading to get my Mercury vs Valkyries prediction.
Our Mercury vs Valkyries Pick
- Pick: Golden State Valkyries +6
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Golden State Valkyries
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 19, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
Mercury vs Valkyries Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mercury –6 | Mercury –245 / Valkyries +200 | 156 |
Key Storylines
- Phoenix enters this matchup off a gritty 85-82 win over Seattle. They got another triple-double from Alyssa Thomas (19 pts, 10 rebs, 11 asts, 3 stls) and strong support from Kahleah Copper (17 pts, 4 asts).
- Golden State suffered a 79-63 home loss to Atlanta on Sunday. Veronica Burton scored 16 points and had 5 assists. Cecilia Zandalasini managed to score 11 points in what was a rough night for the Valkyries.
- The Mercury enter this game in fourth place in the WNBA standings. The Valkyries are in seventh place in the standings. A win for either team would be huge in terms of moving up in the standings as the playoffs approach.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Mercury have won both meetings between these teams this season.
- Phoenix is 18-15 against the spread this season.
- Golden State is 21-12 against the spread in 2025. They have the most wins against the spread in the WNBA.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Alyssa Thomas | 33+ Points/Rebounds/Assists | Thomas has been dominant in recent outings and is a matchup nightmare for Golden State’s defense. |
| Veronica Burton | 12+ Points | Burton is in a shooting rhythm and will look to knock down 3s to keep the Valkyries in contention in this game. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Mercury rank seventh in offensive rating but they are second in the league in defensive rating.
- Golden State is 10th in the WNBA in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating.
- The pace matchup will be interesting in this game. The Mercury are second in the league in pace and the Valkyries play at the slowest pace in the league.
Mercury vs Valkyries Model Projection
Score Projection: Phoenix Mercury 82 – Golden State Valkyries 78
Win Probability: Phoenix Mercury 65%, Golden State Valkyries 35%
Final Thoughts
The Golden State Valkyries have been tough as nails at home this season. While they struggled against the Dream on Sunday, the Valkyries should respond nicely in this contest. I think that the Mercury will end up winning this game at the end of the day. But I am going to take the points with Golden State in what should be an exciting matchup in the Bay Area.
