On Thursday night, the Phoenix Mercury will visit the Dallas Wings in Arlington, TX, in a matchup between one of the most pleasant surprises in the league and one of its biggest disappointments. The Mercury enter Thursday’s action in second place in the WNBA standings, while the Wings have been one of the league’s laughingstocks in 12th position. Here, I break down this matchup and make my Mercury vs Wings prediction. Continue reading to find out if I think this is as big a mismatch as it appears on paper.
Our Mercury vs Wings Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury –7.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Dallas Wings
- Date & Time: Thursday, July 3, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: College Park Center, Arlington, TX
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| PHX –7.5 | PHX –310 / DAL +250 | 168.5 |
Key Storylines
- Phoenix had an extended winning streak snapped in their last game, losing at home to the Las Vegas Aces. They will look to rebound from that setback here against a struggling opponent.
- The Wings are 5-13 on the season and are dealing with a ton of injuries. Arike Ogunbowale and Paige Bueckers are both listed as day-to-day on the injury report, while DiJonai Carrington and Myisha Hines-Allen are also question marks from a health standpoint.
- Phoenix’s star duo of Satou Sabally (19.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG) and Alyssa Thomas (14.8 PPG, 9.3 APG) lead an efficient offense and impact the game in so many ways.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- The Mercury won the first game of the season series between these teams by 13 points in Phoenix on June 11.
- ATS, Phoenix stands at 10–7–0, while Dallas 8–10–0.
- Over/Under: Phoenix games have 9-7-1 to the over this year. Wings games have gone 9-9 in the over/under market.
- Phoenix is 5-2 on the road this year, while Dallas is 3-6 at home.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Satou Sabally | Over 17.5 PTS | Sabally averages 19.1 PPG and should have a big night against her former team, which is struggling on defense. |
| Alyssa Thomas | Over 8.5 AST | Assists leader (9.3 APG). This is a great triple-double opportunity for Thomas. |
| Paige Bueckers | Over 17.5 PTS | If she plays, Bueckers will have to be great to give her team a chance in this matchup. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
Phoenix generates 83.6 PPG (5th in WNBA) while allowing just 79.3. They are top five in the league in both offensive and defensive rating this season. Dallas, meanwhile, is bottom five in the league in both defensive rating and net rating, as their potent offense has not been enough to keep them afloat this year.
Phoenix plays faster, ranking second in the WNBA in pace. But even with a faster tempo, the Mercury feel more under control offensively than the Wings have.
Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings Model Projection
Score Projection: Phoenix Mercury 88 – Dallas Wings 79
Win Probability: Phoenix Mercury 73%, Dallas Wings 27%
Final Thoughts
Given Phoenix’s road form, offensive efficiency, and rebounding advantage, I like the Mercury to cover the spread as favorites in this game. Dallas’ defensive woes and injury issues are a major concern going into this game against an elite team. Lay the points with the Mercury here, as Sabally and Thomas should have big nights for the visitors.
