The Phoenix Mercury head to Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, CT tonight to face the lowly Connecticut Sun in a Wednesday night WNBA matchup. Phoenix arrives at 8–4 on the season, riding a two-game win streak, while Connecticut enters at 2–9, suffering through a rough start. Here, we break down this inter-conference matchup and make our Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun prediction for Tuesday.
Our Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Pick
- Spread: Mercury –13
- Total: Under 155.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Connecticut Sun
- Date & Time: Wednesday, June 18, 2025, 7:00 pm ET
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| PHO –13 | PHO –1050 / CON +675 | 155.5 |
Key Storylines
- Mercury have surged to an 8–4 start, riding strong offensive output averaging nearly 80 ppg compared to Sun’s 71.3 ppg. They’ve shot 42.7% FG, exploiting superior spacing and scoring versatility.
- Connecticut is early rebuilding under new coach Rachid Meziane. They have lost 9 of their first 11 and have been outscored by nearly 17 points per contest this year.
- Mercury have won two straight, including a recent road victory against Las Vegas. Sun have lost four of their last five, including a home defeat to Chicago and a blowout to Washington.
- This is the second night of a back-to-back for Connecticut and it will be interesting to see how they handle that adversity.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
This is the first game of the season series between these teams this year, as they are set to play three games against one another in 2025. Historically, Connecticut has handled Phoenix over the last few seasons. Yet current context favors Phoenix heavily, given all of the roster changes Connecticut has made over the last year.
ATS and O/U Records
- Connecticut: 4-7 ATS, 2–9 SU this season. 4-6-1 on totals this year, trending under in over half their games.
- Phoenix: 7-5 ATS, 5-6-1 on totals, trending under by a slim margin as well.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Satou Sabally | Over 20.5 pts | Averaging 20.6 ppg this season, likely to hit again vs weaker Sun defense. |
| Alyssa Thomas | Over 8.5 ast | Should make plays throughout this game, motivated to perform against former team. |
| Marina Mabrey | Over 16.5 pts | Leading Sun scorer, has to play well for them to have a chance. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense/Defense: Sun last in the WNBA in offensive rating, Mercury rank 8th. Sun also have the worst defensive rating in the W, Mercury rank 4th.
- Pace: Connecticut plays with the second-slowest tempo in the WNBA, Phoenix middle of the pack, should help under bettors.
- Key Mismatch: The duo of Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally have a versatility advantage over the duo of Tina Charles and Olivia Nelson-Ododa for the Sun.
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Model Projection
Score Projection: Phoenix 85 – Connecticut 68
Win Probability: Phoenix 90%, Connecticut 10%
Final Thoughts
Phoenix enters in control with superior offense, shooting, form, and rest against a Sun team playing for the second straight night. The market’s hefty 13-point spread is justified. Expect a lower-scoring game under the 155.5-point total, with Sabally and Thomas leading the charge for Phoenix. Bet Phoenix –13 and for the game to stay under the total with strong confidence.
