The Phoenix Mercury will conclude their longest road trip of the season on Saturday afternoon when they visit the Chicago Sky at Wintrust Arena. With Phoenix at 10‑4 and looking sharp despite injuries, and Chicago reeling at 3‑8 with a depleted backcourt, this game appears one-sided. But the Sky will certainly fight to exceed expectations here. Continue reading to get my Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky prediction before Saturday afternoon’s matchup.
Our Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky Pick
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury -8
- Total: Over 158
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Chicago Sky
- Date & Time: Saturday, June 21, 2025, 1:00 pm ET
- Venue: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: ABC, ESPN+
| Market | Mercury | Sky |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -8 (-110) | +8 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -360 | +285 |
| Total | 158 | |
Key Storylines
- Phoenix remains hot and healthy. They have won four games in a row, with their most recent triumph coming over the defending champion New York Liberty at Barclays Center.
- Chicago is down guards Courtney Vandersloot (ACL) and Moriah Jefferson, severely limiting their perimeter play, especially on the offensive end of the floor.
- Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso are a tough tandem to deal with on the interior, but the lack of reliable play around them has caused problems for Chicago throughout this season.
- Phoenix has worked its way into the top-three in the WNBA standings and will look to remain in a good position with another win here.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Phoenix won the first meeting between these teams this season, coming back from a double-digit deficit to win 94-89 in Phoenix.
- The Mercury are 8-6 against the spread this season, while Chicago is 4-7 against the number.
- The Sky are 1-3 at home this season, while the Mercury have gone 4-2 on the road in 2025.
- Phoenix is 7-6-1 on over/unders this season, with just over half their games going over their totals. Chicago is 5-6, trending slightly under in their games.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Phoenix ranks third in the league in defensive rating, while the Sky are 12th in the 13-team WNBA.
- Phoenix ranks eighth in offensive rating, but the Sky are again worse, ranking 12th there as well.
- Potential mismatches: Phoenix’s wings & guards will attack the Sky’s point of weakness on the perimeter. But Chicago’s size could cause problems for the Phoenix defense as well.
Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky Model Projection
Score Projection: Phoenix Mercury 85 – Chicago Sky 74
Win Probability: Phoenix 78%, Chicago 22%
Final Thoughts
The Chicago Sky looked great for a period of time in the first meeting between these teams this season. But their lack of consistent guard play crushed them down the stretch in that game. We expect something similar to happen here, as the Sky will likely struggle to get enough scoring from outside of the paint to be truly competitive in this match. Look for Phoenix to win handily, as long as Kahleah Copper is able to play for the Mercury.
