The Phoenix Mercury and Chicago Sky are struggling going into their matchup on Sunday in Chicago. Phoenix has seen their playoff seeding suffer because of recent losses and Chicago has played some of the worst basketball in the league. Before these struggling teams face off in the Windy City, you can continue reading to get my Mercury vs Sky prediction.
Our Mercury vs Sky Pick
- Pick: Under 164.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Get Your Bonus Bets: Click the Claim Bonus button and use our Legendz Sportsbook promo code to get a 50% purchase bonus when betting on this game!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Chicago Sky
- Date & Time: August 3, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
- Venue: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
Mercury vs Sky Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Mercury –10 | Mercury –485, Sky +370 | 164.5 |
Key Storylines
Phoenix has lost four of its last five games coming into this matchup with Chicago. The Mercury have lost three of the four games on their current road trip. Chicago is easily the worst team Phoenix has faced on this road trip. But if Phoenix can’t get in sync defensively, they may not be able to stop Chicago from lighting up the scoreboard here.
Chicago comes into this game on a seven-game losing streak. The Sky most recently lost at home to the Golden State Valkyries. They scored just 66 points in that loss and have one of the worst offenses in the league this year. Chicago could benefit from the defensive woes in this contest. But it is also possible that Chicago’s struggling offense cures the defensive issues for Phoenix.
The Sky will have injury questions to answer before this game. The Sky were without Angel Reese and Ariel Atkins due to injuries in Friday’s loss to the Valkyries. If Reese and Atkins play, the Sky have a much better chance to win this matchup with the Mercury.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Phoenix is 2-0 against Chicago so far this season.
- The Mercury won the lone game between these teams in Chicago by a score of 107-86 in June.
- Phoenix is 7-7 on the road so far this season.
- The Sky are 4-9 on their home floor for the season.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense: Phoenix scores 83.8 PPG and has the advantage over a Sky team that puts up 77.1 PPG.
- Defense: The Mercury have a huge advantage on defense. They allow 80.9 PPG. That compares favorably to the 87.7 PPG allowed by the Sky.
- Pace: Phoenix plays at a faster pace than the Sky but both teams can hurt you both in the halfcourt and in transition.
Mercury vs Sky Model Projection
Score Projection: Phoenix 85 – Chicago 77
Win Probability: Phoenix 78%, Chicago 22%
Final Thoughts
Phoenix should have the advantage in this game but you may want to wait for news on Reese and Atkins’ status before locking in any bets. Whether or not Reese and Atkins play, I think we get a low-scoring game thanks to the struggling offense of the Sky. I’ll take the under here instead of backing either side in what is expected to be a lopsided game.
