Friday night’s contest at CareFirst Arena brings one of the hottest teams in the league to the nation’s capital as the unbeaten New York Liberty visit the up-and-coming Washington Mystics. New York swept its first five outings by an average of 14.8 points, while Washington sits at 3-3 after an encouraging victory over Indiana. The betting board opens with the Liberty laying 8.5 points, priced around –425 on the moneyline, with the total set at 164 points. Below, we break down Liberty vs Mystics and make our prediction for the game.
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Liberty vs Mystics Preview
New York is 5-0 on the season after sweeping a two-game series with the Golden State Valkyries at home. The second game in that series was much closer than the first, with the Liberty holding onto win the second matchup by five points after beating their expansion opponent by 28 earlier in the week.
The Liberty did not have Jonquel Jones in action due to a hamstring injury on Thursday and it will be interesting to see if she is able to go in this game. In any case, the bulk of the Liberty roster will be involved in a second game in as many nights here, which could negatively impact their level of performance despite their red-hot start to the 2025 campaign.
Washington is guided by a youthful core that has already shown flashes of brilliance. Rookie forward Kiki Iriafen posts 14.2 points and 10.7 rebounds, putting her in the early Rookie of the Year discussion. First-year guard Sonia Citron scores 15.0 points on 50–40–90 shooting splits, giving Washington a dynamic perimeter creator. The Mystics ride into this game after edging the Fever 83-77, fueled by 21 points from Brittney Sykes and another efficient game from Citron inside the arc despite her shooting 0/4 from three-point range.
The Mystics defend with energy, allowing 78.5 points per game, but late-game execution remains a concern. Three of their defeats came after holding fourth-quarter leads, including a 75-72 setback at Las Vegas where turnovers doomed them. Veterans Aaliyah Edwards and Shakira Austin are easing back into bigger roles following early-season injuries, yet the rotation beyond the starters is still searching for consistent production.
Betting Insights
- Point Spread Opening: Liberty –8.5 at –108, Mystics +8.5 at –128.
- Moneyline Opening: Liberty –425, Mystics +330.
- Total Opening: 164 with –110 each way.
- Liberty Trend: 5-0 straight up, 3-2 against the spread.
- Mystics Trend: 3-3 straight up, 4-2 against the spread.
- Recent Liberty Results:
- May 29 vs Valkyries W 82-77
- May 27 vs Valkyries W 95-67
- May 24 at Fever W 90-88
- May 22 at Sky W 99-74
- May 17 vs Aces W 92-78
- Recent Mystics Results:
- May 28 vs Fever W 83-77
- May 25 at Mercury L 62-68
- May 23 at Aces L 72-75
- May 21 at Valkyries L 74-76
- May 18 at Sun W 90-85
- Totals Note: Liberty games have seen 3 overs and 2 unders, Mystics games landed under in 4 of 6.
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Liberty vs Mystics Prediction
New York enjoys edges in scoring efficiency, three-point volume, turnover differential, and late-game poise. Washington’s youthful spark can keep things lively early, yet the Liberty pose matchup dilemmas that the Mystics cannot counter for a full 40 minutes under normal circumstances. But these are not normal circumstances, as the Liberty are banged up and playing for the second night in a row.
Expect the home team to keep this game close, using their depth in the paint to make life tough on a New York team whose bigs are not fully healthy. This should be a very good game, one we expect the Liberty to win, but not by more than eight points.
Pick: Mystics +8.5 and Under 168.5. Projection: New York 80, Washington 74.
