The game of the night in the WNBA on Saturday night will be between the New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury. Both of these teams are playoff-bound and the outcome of this game will be huge for seeding purposes. Before this top five matchup in the WNBA, continue reading to get my analysis for this contest and to get my Liberty vs Mercury prediction.
Our Liberty vs Mercury Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury -1.5
- Confidence: 3/5
- Get Your Bonus Bets: Use bet365 promo code ATSBONUS to bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed when you bet on this game!
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+ 
4.8/5
✓ Early Payouts
✓ 100% Parlay Boost
✓ Daily LineUps
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
✓ Early Payouts
✓ 100% Parlay Boost
✓ Daily LineUps
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Gambling Problem? Call or TEXT 1-800-Gambler 21+
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: August 30, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: NBA TV
Liberty vs Mercury Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Phoenix -1.5 | Phoenix -120 / New York +100 | 165.5 |
Key Storylines
- Injuries are a huge storyline going into this game for the Liberty. Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Cloud are questionable with injuries. Jonquel Jones is also questionable due to illness. The Liberty could be short-handed going into this key contest.
- Both teams enter this contest on winning streaks. The Liberty have won two games in a row and the Mercury have won three games in a row. A win here would be huge for whoever gets it.
- Both teams are jockeying for playoff positioning. The Mercury enter Saturday’s play in fourth place in the WNBA standings. New York is in fifth place. The winner of this game will end the day in the top four and in position to have home-court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Past meetings: Phoenix olds a 2-1 lead in the season series against the Liberty this year. Phoenix won the first two games before New York grabbed their third meeting of the season in late July.
- ATS records: Phoenix has been much better against the spread than New York in 2025. The Mercury are 20-17-1 against the spread this year and the Liberty are 14-23-2 ATS. New York has the worst record against the spread in the WNBA this season.
- Home/road splits: Phoenix has a 13-6 record on their home floor this year. New York is 8-10 on the road.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense and defense: New York is third in the WNBA in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating. Phoenix is seventh in the W in offensive rating and third in defensive rating.
- Pace of play: Both of these teams enter Saturday in the top four in the WNBA in pace of play. That could be good news for those looking to bet the over in this inter-conference clash.
Liberty vs Mercury Model Projection
Score Projection: Phoenix Mercury 90 – New York Liberty 84
Win Probability: Phoenix Mercury 58%, New York Liberty 42%
Final Thoughts
If the New York Liberty were at full strength, I would say that they could certainly beat the Phoenix Mercury. But New York is not fully healthy going into this game. Even if Cloud, Jones, and Ionescu all play, they’re not all at 100%. I will take the Mercury to win this game and cover the spread as they are the healthier team right now.
