The New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury will play a deciding Game 3 in their first-round WNBA playoff series on Friday. These teams split their first two games in this series, with the road team winning both games. Which of these teams will advance to the semifinal round of the playoffs? Find out who I think will advance with my Mercury vs Liberty prediction below.
Our Liberty vs Mercury Game 3 Pick
- Pick: Mercury -2
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: Friday, September 19, 2025
- Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Liberty vs Mercury Game 3 Odds
| Bet Type | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury -2 |
| Moneyline | Mercury -135 / Liberty +114 |
| Total Points (O/U) | 156.5 |
Key Storylines
- Breanna Stewart’s knee injury is a huge storyline going into Game 3. Stewart sprained her left MCL in overtime of Game 1. An MRI showed no structural damage. She played in Game 2 but was limited, scoring just 6 points in 20 minutes. Her mobility and ability to influence the game on both ends could be reduced. Her status and effectiveness are crucial to New York’s championship defense.
- Phoenix’s offensive bounce-back in Game 2 was impressive. After a rough Game 1 shooting night, Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas, and Kahleah Copper delivered in Game 2. Phoenix dominated on both ends of the floor on the road on Wednesday and they will look to do the same at home on Friday.
- Matchups in the frontcourt and on the glass will be huge in this winner-take-all game. With Stewart potentially limited, the Liberty may struggle on the boards by having to rely too heavily on Jonquel Jones. Phoenix’s Alyssa Thomas is well equipped to exploit mismatches, as is Sabally if she’s shooting well.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Past meetings: In the regular season, Phoenix won three of the four games vs New York. The teams have since split their first two meetings of this postseason, giving Phoenix a 4-2 advantage over New York overall.
ATS and O/U records: These teams have both covered the spread once in this series. The road team has won outright and covered the spread in each of the first two games. Each of the first two games of this series have gone under their totals.
Home/road splits: Phoenix is 15-8 at home this year between the regular season and playoffs. New York is 11-12 on the road for the year.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
This series has featured the slowest pace of the four WNBA postseason series so far. That has helped this series see nothing but unders through two games. If the pace remains slow, the under could be a great play again in this contest.
Liberty vs Mercury Game 3 Model Projection
Score Projection: Liberty 70 – Phoenix 74
Win Probability: Liberty 45%, Phoenix 55%
Final Thoughts
I think we are in for another gritty, low-scoring game between Phoenix and New York on Friday night. But I think the difference in this game will be the physical limitations of Breanna Stewart with her injured knee. Expect Phoenix to take advantage of a member of New York’s big three not being at 100%, as the Mercury should advance and cover the spread at home.
