The New York Liberty and Phoenix Mercury will play in Game 1 of their 2025 WNBA first-round playoff series on Sunday. These teams finished the regular season with identical 27-17 records and the Mercury have home-court advantage via tiebreaker. Before these teams open their best-of-three series from Phoenix, continue reading to get my Liberty vs Mercury Game 1 prediction.
Our Liberty vs Mercury Game 1 Pick
- Pick: Mercury Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 14, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
- Venue: PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
- Broadcast: ESPN
Liberty vs Mercury Game 1 Odds
| Bet Type | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty −1.5 |
| Moneyline | Liberty −122 / Mercury +102 |
| Total Points (Over/Under) | 164 |
Key Storylines
- New York’s health: Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones are finally largely available again. They struggled earlier in the year when one or more were out. They will try to defend their title with their top stars healthy.
- Phoenix’s strong season: The Mercury closed the regular season strong, earning the fourth seed and earning home court in Game 1. Players like Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper, and Satou Sabally have all had big moments, especially in games against New York.
- Regular season series: Phoenix won three of the four meetings between these teams this season. Liberty’s only win in that stretch came when their top trio was healthy.
- Playoff pressure: The Liberty are defending champions and expectations are high for them. Phoenix wants to prove themselves with their new-look core.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Past meetings: Phoenix beat New York three times out of four in the regular season.
- ATS records: The Liberty are 15-27-2 against the spread this season. Phoenix is 21-22-1 agianst the spread in 2025.
- Home/road splits: Phoenix is strong at home with a 15-7 home record. New York went 10-12 on the road for the year.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | Over 18.5 points |
| Alyssa Thomas | Over 9.5 rebounds + assists combined |
| Kahleah Copper | Over 2.5 threes made |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive/Defensive Ratings: New York is fifth in the WNBA in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating. Phoenix is seventh in the WNBA in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating.
- Pace: Both of these teams are in the top five in the WNBA in pace. Phoenix is third in pace and New York is fourth.
Liberty vs Mercury Game 1 Model Projection
Score Projection: Mercury 82 – Liberty 78
Win Probability: Mercury 61%, Liberty 39%
Final Thoughts
New York has a championship history to lean back on and proved they can win in hostile environments in their run to last year’s title. But the Phoenix Mercury look like a better basketball team than the Liberty right now. The trio of Copper, Sabally, and Thomas might be better than New York’s big three of Ionescu, Stewart, and Jones in the present day. I’ll take Phoenix to win this game outright as a home underdog.
