The New York Liberty will visit the Minnesota Lynx in a WNBA Finals rematch on Wednesday night in Minneapolis. Minnesota holds the top spot in the WNBA standings this season and New York is right behind them in second place. Both teams will look to make a statement in this possible preview of the 2025 Finals. Continue reading to get my Liberty vs Lynx prediction for this huge showdown in women’s basketball.
Our Liberty vs Lynx Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Lynx −8.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Minnesota Lynx
- Date & Time: Wednesday, July 30, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: ESPN
Liberty vs Lynx Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Lynx −8.5 | Liberty +310 / Lynx −390 | 163.5 |
Key Storylines
The Lynx seek redemption after narrowly losing the 2024 Finals to New York in five games last season. Minnesota is in first place in the WNBA standings at 22-5. They dropped to 14-1 at home on the year by losing their last game to the Atlanta Dream on Sunday. Napheesa Collier scored 32 points in that loss and is the clear favorite to win this year’s WNBA MVP award. A win here would put the Lynx five games ahead of the next team in the standings and would all but lock up the top seed in the upcoming playoffs.
The Liberty are managing an injury to Breanna Stewart going into this game. She is questionable for this contest with a leg injury that caused her to miss their loss to the Dallas Wings on Monday night. Nyara Sabally is out due to injury and Emma Meesseman is not officially active till early August. Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu will be the key pieces for the Liberty as they look to avoid a third straight loss and make a championship statement with a win here.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first meeting of the regular season between the teams.
- Minnesota is 14‑1 at home this season. New York 5‑5 on the road.
- The Lynx are 16‑11 against the spread this year. The Liberty are 11‑13‑1 against the spread in 2025.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Minnesota is first in the WNBA in offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating.
- New York is second in offensive rating, third in defensive rating, and second in net rating.
- These teams play at completely different tempos. The Liberty play at the league’s fastest pace and the Lynx rank 12th out of 13 teams in tempo.
Liberty vs Lynx Model Projection
Score Projection: Minnesota 90 – New York 80
Win Probability: Minnesota 67%, New York 33%
Final Thoughts
The Lynx suffered a setback in their last game at home against the Dream. But I don’t expect the Lynx to drop a second straight game on their home floor. Look for the Lynx to get revenge on the Liberty in their first meeting since the 2024 WNBA Finals and for Minnesota to cover the spread as a home favorite with Stewart not healthy for New York.
