The New York Liberty will take on the Minnesota Lynx in a WNBA Finals rematch on Saturday. The Liberty are in a battle for playoff positioning while the Lynx are looking to get another statement win over the team that beat them in last season’s WNBA Finals. There is both seeding and momentum on the line in Minneapolis. Before this game tips off, continue reading to get my Liberty vs Lynx prediction for Saturday afternoon.
Our Liberty vs Lynx Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Lynx –2
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Minnesota Lynx
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 16, 2025, 2:00 PM ET
- Venue: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: CBS
Liberty vs Lynx Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| MIN –2 | MIN –135 / NYL +114 | 165.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Liberty are depleted due to injuries to Breanna Stewart and Nyara Sabally. Those losses have impacted their interior offense and rebounding. Stewart’s absence has also impacted their offensive output.
- Emma Meesseman has been a reliable force since joining the Liberty. She has delivered 24 points in each of her last two games.
- The Lynx will be without Napheesa Collier due to an ankle injury but they have not missed a beat without her.
- Midseason addition DiJonai Carrington has strengthened Minnesota’s perimeter defense and contributed on both ends.
- The Liberty turned the ball over a ton in their last meeting with Minnesota and will look to clean that up here.
- The Lynx clinched a playoff berth and seem focused on securing home-court advantage. New York is in a battle for the second spot in the standings but could fall to fourth place with a loss in this game.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This will be the third meeting of the season between last year’s WNBA finalists. Minnesota has won both previous contests.
- The Lynx are 16-1 at home in the 2025 regular season.
- New York is 8-8 on the road for the year.
- Minnesota is 19-12-1 against the spread.
- The Liberty have gone 12-19-2 against the number.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Emma Meesseman | Over 15.5 points | She’s scored 24 in consecutive outings and was efficient from the field in her last meeting with the Lynx. |
| Sabrina Ionescu | Under 18.5 points | Ionescu has struggled with her efficiency against the Lynx and DiJonai Carrington won’t make things any easier on her. |
| Kayla McBride | Over 15.5 points | McBride led the Lynx with 18 in the last meeting between Minnesota and New York |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
The Lynx are number one in the WNBA in offensive rating, defensive rating and net rating. New York is third in offensive rating but has fallen to sixth in the league in defensive rating. The absences of Stewart and Sabally have clearly impacted the Liberty on the defensive end of the floor.
Liberty vs Lynx Model Projection
- Score Projection: Minnesota 85 – New York 75
- Win Probability: Minnesota 61%, New York 39%
Final Thoughts
I think the biggest factor that will decide the outcome of this game is the huge rest advantage that the Lynx enjoy going into this contest. The Lynx have not played a game since August 10 against the Liberty. The Liberty have played a back-to-back on the West coast since then and will be the more fatigued team in this game. I expect the Lynx to roll against the Liberty for the third time in a row in this contest and rest will play a big role in that outcome.
