With both teams set for Game 3 of their regular season series, the New York Liberty hit the road to face the Golden State Valkyries at Chase Center on June 25, 2025. New York is off to a strong start this season, entering at 10-3 while Golden State sits at 7-6. New York is looking for a third straight win over the Valkyries this season, and I will break that game down further with this New York Liberty vs Golden State Valkyries prediction.
Our New York Liberty vs Golden State Valkyries Pick
- Spread: Valkyries +9.5
- Total: Over 163.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Golden State Valkyries
- Date & Time: June 25, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty -9.5 | NYL -470 / GSV +340 | 163.5 |
Key Storylines
- Liberty are 10-3 overall, but they have lost two straight games and three of their last four.
- Jonquel Jones is set to miss a month due to an ankle injury. Her absence has meant trouble for the Liberty so far and that could continue here.
- Valkyries are 7-6, exceeding expectations in their first season as a WNBA franchise, thanks to veteran contributors like Veronica Burton and Kayla Thornton.
- Speaking of Thornton, she faces her former team here after helping the Liberty win the WNBA championship lasts season.
- This is the second game of a West Coast road trip for the Liberty after they lost to Seattle on Sunday.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- New York leads the season series 2-0. They won the first game 95-67 and the second 82-77.
- These teams are 1-1 ATS against each other this season.
- New York is 6-7 against the spread so far this year, while Golden State is 9-4 ATS.
- New York games tend to go over the total, as they are 8-5 to the over for the year. Golden State plays at a slower pace that has led to 8 unders in 13 games.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | Over 21.5 Points | Averages 20.8 PPG and has cleared this number in three of her last four games for the Liberty. |
| Breanna Stewart | Over 5.5 Rebounds | Stewart should grab more rebounds with Jones out of action for New York. |
| Kayla Thornton | Over 15.5 Points | Facing her former team, Thornton should be motivated and put up big numbers. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense: New York is 2nd in the WNBA in offensive rating, while Golden State is 11th in that category.
- Defense: The Liberty have the best defensive rating in the WNBA, and Golden State is a solid 4th in that department.
- Pace: New York plays at the fastest tempo in the league, while Golden State is 9th in pace and wants to slow this game to a crawl to neutralize the Liberty’s offensive advantages.
- Potential mismatch: Without Jones on the floor, Stewart can play a stretch-five at times for New York, which could be difficult for Golden State to deal with on defense.
New York Liberty vs Golden State Valkyries Model Projection
Score Projection: New York Liberty 87 – Golden State Valkyries 80
Win Probability: Liberty 75%, Valkyries 25%
Final Thoughts
There is no doubt that the Liberty are the better team going into this matchup with the Valkyries. But I expect the Valkyries to keep this game respectable and for them to cover the spread. Jonquel Jones’ absence has negatively impacted the Liberty lately, and while New York should avoid another loss here, they should find themselves in another competitive game.
