The New York Liberty travel to face the Dallas Wings in WNBA action on Monday night. The Liberty carry a strong 17–7 record but are coming off of a heartbreaking loss in their last game. Dallas is playing on the second game of a back-to-back here and will look to overcome that to pull off a monumental upset. Here, I have broken down this inter-conference matchup in the WNBA and will bring you my Liberty vs Wings prediction.
Our Liberty vs Wings Pick
- Pick: Dallas Wings +8
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings
- Date & Time: July 28, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: College Park Center, Arlington, TX
- Broadcast: ESPN
Liberty vs Wings Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| NY –8 | NY –360, DAL +285 | 168.5 |
Key Storylines
New York suffered a blow as star forward Breanna Stewart exited from their last game with a lower leg injury. Imaging revealed no major damage but Stewart is listed as out through July 30 while traveling with the team. The Liberty suffered a loss at the buzzer in their last game at home against the Los Angeles Sparks. They will need to overcome the absence of Stewart to bounce back from that loss. New York will also be without Emma Meesseman as she awaits her Liberty debut after signing with them.
The Dallas Wings enter on the second night of a back‑to‑back after a 26‑point loss to the Las Vegas Aces on Sunday. Paige Bueckers, Myisha Hines‑Allen, and Maddy Siegrist missed Dallas’ game against the Aces but Bueckers could return for this contest. Bueckers averages 18.1 points and 5.6 assists and has been the Wings’ engine on offense in her rookie season. She will need to be great if the Wings are going to steal this game.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
This is the first game of a three-game season series between the Liberty and Wings this year. Dallas is 11-15 against the spread this year under first-year coach Chris Koclanes. The Liberty are 11-12-1 against the spread in 2025. Both teams have seen the majority of their games go over their respective totals. New York is 13-11 to the over and Dallas is 14-12 to the over in 2025.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- New York is second in the league in offensive rating. They are third in defensive rating and second in net rating.
- Dallas is eighth in the league in offensive rating. They rank 10th in defensive rating and 11th in net rating.
Liberty vs Wings Model Projection
Score Projection: New York Liberty 82 – Dallas Wings 76
Win Probability: New York 70%, Dallas 30%
Final Thoughts
I think that we see the Liberty win this game on the road behind the play of Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu. But with Breanna Stewart out, I’m not sure that the Liberty are going to win this game by some spectacular margin. I will take the points with the Wings in game that won’t be easy for the Liberty without Stewart in the lineup.
