The New York Liberty and Dallas Wings will play their second consecutive game against one another on Friday night. The Liberty defeated the Wings on Tuesday in Brooklyn. But Dallas got the better of New York in Texas earlier this season and will look to repeat that performance in this contest. Before tip-off from Arlington, continue reading to get my Liberty vs Wings prediction.
Our Liberty vs Wings Pick
- Pick: Dallas Wings +7
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings
- Date & Time: August 8, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: College Park Center, Arlington, TX
- Broadcast: ION
Liberty vs Wings Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty -7 | Liberty -305 / Wings +245 | 173.5 |
Key Storylines
The big storyline coming into this game is the guard battle on both sides. Sabrina Ionescu and Arike Ogunbowale struggled shooting the basketball in the last matchup between these teams on Tuesday. If one of them can outperform the other convincingly in this game it could end up determining which team comes out on top.
Paige Bueckers will also have plenty to say about the outcome of this WNBA matchup. Bueckers had 21 points on the road against the Liberty on Tuesday night. If she can play at a high level at home in this game, the Wings could clinch the regular-season series against New York.
New York is without Breanna Stewart, Nyara Sabally, and Kennedy Burke due to injuries. That did not stop the Liberty from winning their last two games against the Connecticut Sun and Dallas Wings. Dallas is healthier than they have been in a long time with Ty Harris as their only current absence.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- Each team has won once against each other so far this season.
- The home team is 2-0 in this season series so far.
- New York is 6-7 on the road in 2025.
- Dallas is 5-10 in their home games for the year.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
The Liberty are near the top of the WNBA in most advanced metrics. They are third in the league in offensive and defensive rating this season. Dallas is in the bottom half of the league in both of those categories. But the Wings have been competitive against the Liberty in spite of those statistical disadvantages.
The key matchup in this game will be between Ionescu and Ogunbowale. Ogunbowale shot 3/12 from the field in Tuesday’s loss in Brooklyn. Ionescu was just 2/9 from the field in that game after scoring 36 in Connecticut the game prior. Whoever steps up in this game will give their team the inside track to a win.
Liberty vs Wings Model Projection
Score Projection: New York 87 – Dallas 82
Win Probability: New York 75%, Dallas 25%
Final Thoughts
I think that the Liberty are clearly the better team going into this game. But I’m not convinced that New York will cover the point spread on the road here either. I expect some positive regression shooting the ball from Dallas in this game and for the Liberty to not get double-digits out of Stephanie Talbot again. New York should win this game, but I’m taking the points with the Wings.
