The New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun will meet on Sunday afternoon. This matchup is a rematch from Friday night when the Sun shocked the Liberty. Can New York respond or will Connecticut earn a second straight upset win at home? Continue reading to get my Liberty vs Sun prediction for this Eastern Conference matchup in the WNBA.
Our Liberty vs Sun Pick
- Pick: New York Liberty –7.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun
- Date & Time: August 3, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
Liberty vs Sun Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty –7.5 | Liberty –425, Sun +330 | 167.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Sun beat the Liberty by 16 points on Friday night. Connecticut responded brilliantly to their 48-point loss to the Liberty earlier this season. Now the Liberty will try to avenge a double-digit loss of their own.
- Breanna Stewart’s status is still up in the air for New York. The Liberty have struggled mightily without Stewart in their lineup due to a leg injury.
- Both teams shot 25% or worse from three-point range on Friday night. The team that can find some consistent outside shooting on Sunday will give themselves a good chance to get a win.
- The Liberty scored just seven points in the fourth quarter against the Sun. How they respond will be one of the most fascinating subplots coming into this game.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- These teams have split their first two matchups of the season.
- Both of the games between the Liberty and Sun have been decided by double-digits.
- New York is 11-14-2 against the spread this season.
- Connecticut is 13-13 against the spread after winning outright as an underdog on Friday.
- New York is 5-7 on the road in 2025.
- Connecticut is 4-10 at home this year.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Liberty have lost four games in a row coming into this contest.
- In their four straight losses, the Liberty have allowed 92.75 points per game.
- Connecticut is still the worst team in the league in offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating.
- Rebounding will be the key to this game. The Sun outrebounded the Liberty 42-29 in Friday’s game. New York will need to be better on the glass to right the ship here.
Liberty vs Sun Model Projection
Score Projection: Liberty 90 – Sun 79
Win Probability: Liberty 88%, Sun 12%
Final Thoughts
Even without Breanna Stewart, I am expecting more from the New York Liberty than we saw from them on Friday. The Liberty will shoot better than 25% from three-point range in this contest and the Liberty will be better as a team on the glass. Expect New York to win this game by double-digits and to avoid a fifth straight loss as they look to protect the second spot in the WNBA standings.
