The New York Liberty will head to Uncasville to face the Connecticut Sun on Friday night at Mohegan Sun Arena. The Liberty are missing star forward Breanna Stewart and are on a three-game losing skid. They will look to recover from all of that adversity against the team with the worst record in the league. Continue reading to get my analysis for this Eastern Conference matchup, including my Liberty vs Sun prediction.
Our Liberty vs Sun Pick
- Pick: Sun +11
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Connecticut Sun
- Date & Time: August 1, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
- Broadcast: ION
Liberty vs Sun Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| NYL –11 | NYL –650 / CONN +470 | 168 |
Key Storylines
- Star forward Breanna Stewart is out with a bone bruise in her right knee and will not suit up Friday. The Liberty have struggled without her production on both ends of the floor.
- The Liberty are on a losing streak. They have dropped three straight games. That includes two straight road games against the Dallas Wings and Minnesota Lynx.
- Connecticut is 4-21 and has the worst record in the league by a wide margin. But they are healthy coming into this contest and will look to pull off an upset as a double-digit underdog.
- This is the fifth straight home game for the Sun and the third straight road game for the Liberty. It will be interesting to see if those circumstances help the Sun or hurt the Liberty at all.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- New York won the first meeting between these teams this season in June. That game was decided by 48 points and was one of the most lopsided games in WNBA history.
- The Liberty have a losing record against the spread at 11-13-2.
- Connecticut is 12-13 against the spread for the year.
- New York is 15-11 to the over so far this season.
- Connecticut is 13-11-1 to the over in 2025.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Sabrina Ionescu | Over 6.5 assists | Connecticut ranks 13th in assists allowed this season. |
| Sabrina Ionescu | Over 20.5 points | Ionescu has been very productive with Stewart out and should have another big game here. |
| Tina Charles | Over 14.5 points | Charles averages 16.1 PPG and the Sun will need to find scoring from her for them to have a chance in this contest. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Liberty rank second in the league in offensive rating and net rating. They are third in defensive rating.
- Connecticut is dead last in the league in offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating.
- New York plays at the fastest pace in the WNBA. Connecticut ranks 10th in the league in tempo.
- Key matchups: Connecticut’s biggest challenge in this game will be defending Jonquel Jones on the interior. The Liberty will need to make sure they slow down Marina Mabrey on the perimeter.
Liberty vs Sun Model Projection
Score Projection: New York 90 – Connecticut 80
Win Probability: New York 85%, Connecticut 15%
Final Thoughts
Betting on the Connecticut Sun is a blessing and a curse. On one hand, I get double-digits by backing them in this game. On the other, I need the Connecticut Sun to stay within 10 points. I am going to back the Sun here, as the Liberty have struggled without the services of Breanna Stewart. New York should still win this game, but I think Connecticut will put up a much better fight than they did the last time they played New York.
