With the New York Liberty set to visit the Atlanta Dream on Sunday, June 29, 2025, both teams are looking to recover from losses in their last games. Read on for analysis of the injuries, trends, and stats you need to know, along with my Liberty vs Dream prediction for Sunday afternoon.
Our Liberty vs Dream Pick
- Pick: Atlanta Dream +4
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Atlanta Dream
- Date & Time: Sunday, June 29, 2025, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass and ESPN3
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty –4 | NYL –180 / ATL +150 | 165.5 |
Key Storylines
The Liberty enter this game after losing three of their last four games. Their defense was torched by the Phoenix Mercury in their last game, giving up 106 points, thanks in part due to Jonquel Jones missing time with an injured ankle. Forwards Nyara Sabally and Isabelle Harrison have stepped into larger roles in Jones’ absence. But I am very concerned with the defense of the Liberty with Jones out, as they have given up 90.5 points per game in their last four games.
The Dream have lost two games in a row coming into Sunday afternoon. On Friday, they lost 96-92 in overtime to the Minnesota Lynx. The Dream had a great chance to win that game against the team with the best record in the league. But they failed to hold a late lead and will have to forget about that game on a quick turnaround here. The size of the Dream could cause major problems for the Liberty with Jones out of action.
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- This is the second regular‑season meeting between these teams. New York won the first 86‑81 in New York.
- Liberty are 6‑9 against the spread this season, Dream are 9-7 ATS.
- New York is 9-6 to the over this year, Atlanta is 8-7-1 to the over.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
The Liberty rank first in offensive rating, and defensive and net rating. They play at the fastest pace in the league. Atlanta is second in offensive rating, fifth in defensive rating, and third in net rating in the WNBA. They play at the slowest pace in the WNBA. Whichever team does the best job of imposing their pace on this game will have the upper hand.
There is a glaring potential mismatch in this game for me. That is the frontcourt of the Dream against the short-handed frontcourt of New York. Without the size of Jonquel Jones, Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner could have a field day both scoring and rebounding for Atlanta.
New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream Model Projection
Score Projection: Atlanta Dream 89 – New York Liberty 80
Win Probability: Dream 67%, Liberty 33%
Final Thoughts
When both of these teams are healthy, I rate the Liberty as better than the Dream. But with a player as important as Jones out of action for New York and the Dream playing at home, I like Atlanta to win outright here. I recommend taking the points with the Dream, just to be safe, but the Dream could easily win this game outright as the underdog.
