The New York Liberty will face the surging Atlanta Dream on Saturday afternoon in a game with huge WNBA playoff implications. Both teams are in the top five in the WNBA standings and the winner of this game could end the day in second place in the standings. Here, I take a closer look at this huge matchup between Eastern Conference opponents and make my Liberty vs Dream prediction.
Our Liberty vs Dream Pick
- Pick: Atlanta Dream -4
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Atlanta Dream
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 23, 2025, 2:00 PM ET
- Venue: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA
- Broadcast: CBS
Liberty vs Dream Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Dream –4 | Liberty +160 / Dream –192 | 161 |
Key Storylines
- This game is huge for playoff positioning for both teams. Atlanta is in second in the league standings for now. But a New York win would move them ahead of the Dream via the head-to-head tiebreaker. Both of these teams will be desperate for a victory to help their seeding prospects.
- The Liberty are banged up going into this game. Breanna Stewart is out again with a knee injury and Sabrina Ionescu is questionable with a foot injury. Not being at full strength could cost New York against an elite opponent.
- The Dream have won eight of their last 10 games. Their last outing was a win at home over the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx and Atlanta will look to keep playing at a high level in this contest.
- New York has lost three of their last four games coming into this contest. Their last game was a shocking loss to the Chicago Sky at home and the Liberty will need to shake that off ahead of a game against a much tougher adversary.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Liberty have won two of the last three games between these teams on the season.
- Home teams are 3-0 in games played between these teams this season.
- The Liberty are 8-9 on the road for the season.
- Atlanta is 11-5 on their home floor entering this matchup.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Liberty rank second in the league in offensive rating. Atlanta is third in that category.
- Atlanta is second in the WNBA in defensive rating and the Liberty are sixth in that department.
- The pace matchup in this game will be fascinating. New York plays with the fastest pace in the WNBA and Atlanta is 12th out of 13 teams in pace. Both teams will try to impose their style of play on their opponent here.
Liberty vs Dream Model Projection
Score Projection: Liberty 80 – Dream 86
Win Probability: Liberty 40%, Dream 60%
Final Thoughts
This game is massive for both of these teams but only one of these teams is playing close to its best basketball right now. The Dream have been red-hot lately and are one of the best teams in the WNBA on their home floor. I’ll take the Dream to win and cover the spread at home against a depleted Liberty team in a huge game in the race for second place in the W.
