The unbeaten Minnesota Lynx head to the desert on Friday night to face the Phoenix Mercury in what shapes up as an early-season barometer for these two Western Conference contenders. Minnesota has stormed out to a 5-0 start on the strength of its offense, while Phoenix sits at 4-1 and owns an elite defense. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 PM EDT at Footprint Center, and sportsbooks have installed the Lynx as a 4.5-point road favorite with a game total of 158.5. The moneyline lists Minnesota at -200 and Phoenix at +165. Here, we make our prediction for Lynx vs Mercury from Phoenix.
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Lynx vs Mercury Preview
Minnesota enters play after a gritty 82-77 home victory over Seattle on Tuesday, a game that showcased the club’s depth. Forward Napheesa Collier continued her MVP-level start by pouring in 32 points, pushing her season averages to 26.8 points, 7.8 boards, 2.4 steals, and 1.4 blocks while shooting 52.7% from the field and 93.9% at the stripe. Collier is flanked by veteran guard Courtney Williams, who is dishing a team-high 6.6 assists to go with 14.8 points. Sharpshooting forward Alanna Smith is burying 52.9% of her triples, stretching defenses and opening driving lanes for Minnesota’s guards.
Coach Cheryl Reeve’s group is second in the league at 86.2 points per game and sports a 47% field-goal clip. Minnesota’s defense is also solid, holding opponents to 77.4 points and forcing 8 steals nightly. However, the Lynx have covered just two of their first five spreads, a reminder that oddsmakers have already priced in their hot start.
Phoenix counters with a balanced attack built around offseason acquisitions Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas. Sabally tops the Mercury at 19.8 points and 7.4 rebounds, while Thomas is flirting with triple-double territory each night, averaging 15.2 points, 7.6 boards, and 8.0 assists. Phoenix relies heavily on the three-point shot, knocking down 10.8 treys per contest. Guard Lexi Held chips in 2.2 steals, keying a defense that allows just 74.6 points per game.
The Mercury have been flawless at home (4-0 straight up) but are 0-1 on the road, their lone loss coming in Seattle. Their recent 94-89 triumph over Chicago highlighted their perimeter punch: Phoenix shot 40% from deep and drilled 16 triples. The challenge Friday will be containing Minnesota’s interior finishing while maintaining their own outside rhythm.
Betting Insights
- Spread Trends
- Lynx: 2-3 ATS overall, 2-0 ATS on the road
- Mercury: 2-3 ATS overall, 2-2 ATS at home
- Totals
- Minnesota games: 3 overs, 2 unders
- Phoenix games: 3 overs, 2 unders
- Combined scoring averages: 166.6 points, exceeding the posted 158.5
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Lynx vs Mercury Prediction
Phoenix’s defensive profile is impressive on paper, but a closer look shows the Mercury have faced four opponents that rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating. Minnesota represents a significant step up in class. Collier’s inside-out versatility forces switches that Phoenix’s frontcourt, outside of Sabally, has struggled to handle. Meanwhile, Courtney Williams’ ability to generate efficient mid-range looks can punish Phoenix for over-helping on Collier.
On the other side, Phoenix’s game plan revolves around spacing and pace. The Mercury shoot 34.8% from deep as a team. They will need that number north of that to keep pressure on the visitors. Minnesota’s perimeter defense allows 8 threes, exactly the league average, but Reeve has emphasized high hands on close-outs, limiting clean looks from the wings. If those contests push Phoenix’s shooters off the line, the Mercury could be forced into low-percentage late-clock attempts, an area where their offense bogs down.
Expect Phoenix to throw multiple bodies at Collier, but the Lynx have reliable secondary scoring: Alanna Smith is finishing at 62.5 percent overall, and Kayla McBride is back to add another dangerous scorer to the floor for Minnesota.
Pick: Minnesota -4.5. Lean to the Under 158.5, expecting a competitive but slightly slower affair than the market projects. Minnesota’s frontcourt dominance and proven road form should extend their perfect record to 6-0 while cashing the spread for their backers.
