The rematch everyone has been waiting for arrives Sunday afternoon as the Minnesota Lynx travel to Barclays Center to take on the defending champion New York Liberty. The Liberty won the WNBA Finals over the Lynx last season. But the Lynx exacted revenge in Minnesota earlier this season. Who will win this battle of title contenders? To find out, continue reading to get my Lynx vs Liberty prediction.
Our Lynx vs Liberty Pick
- Pick: New York Liberty -4
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Minnesota Lynx @ New York Liberty
- Date & Time: August 10, 2025, 12:30 PM ET
- Venue: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
- Broadcast: ABC
Lynx vs Liberty Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty –4 | Liberty –166 / Lynx +140 | 165.5 |
Key Storylines
The biggest storyline going into this game is the absence of superstars on both sides. Napheesa Collier is out with an ankle injury for the Lynx and Breanna Stewart is out with a knee injury for the Liberty. There is starpower on both sides even without Collier and Stewart on the floor and both teams could probably make a run at the championship without the co-founders of Unrivaled on the floor.
The other major storyline going into this game is whether the acquisition of DiJonai Carrington can help the Lynx shut down the guards of the Liberty. Natasha Cloud and Sabrina Ionescu are both dangerous offensively in different ways for New York. Carrington was brought in at the trade deadline from the Dallas Wings specifically to be a high-energy stopper on defense. This will be a great test for her and the Lynx.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The Lynx are 1-0 against the Liberty this season. They beat New York 100-93 on July 30.
- The Liberty covered the spread in the first meeting between these teams by a half-point.
- New York is 11-17-2 against the spread this season. Minnesota is 18-12-1 against the spread in 2025.
- The Lynx are 10-4 on the road this season. The Liberty are 13-3 at home.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Emma Meesseman | Over 13.5 Points | Meesseman has scored in double-digits in all three of her games with the Liberty. She should benefit from the absence of Collier in this contest. |
| Kayla McBride | Under 2.5 Threes | McBride has made one three over her last two games after making eight against the Aces last week. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- The Lynx lead the league in offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating.
- The Liberty rank third in offensive rating. They are second in defensive rating and net rating.
- New York is first in the WNBA in pace. Minnesota is 11th out of 13 WNBA teams in tempo this year.
Lynx vs Liberty Model Projection
Score Projection: Minnesota Lynx 80 – New York Liberty 85
Win Probability: Minnesota 45%, New York 55%
Final Thoughts
Even without Napheesa Collier available for the Lynx, I think that we see a pretty close game between these two title contenders. The Liberty should get the win at home, and I think they will cover the spread. But this game will not be a blowout by any stretch of the imagination.
