The team with the best record in the WNBA will face one of the three teams that has been eliminated from playoff contention on Saturday night. The Minnesota Lynx are closing in on locking up the top seed in the WNBA playoffs. They will look to avoid an upset against a Connecticut Sun team that is in the bottom three in the league standings. Before tip-off from Connecticut, continue reading to get my Lynx vs Sun prediction for Saturday’s contest.
Our Lynx vs Sun Pick
- Pick: Sun +14.5
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Minnesota Lynx @ Connecticut Sun
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
- Broadcast: NBA TV
Lynx vs Sun Odds
| Odds | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Lynx | -14.5 | -1200 | Over 163.5 |
| Connecticut Sun | +14.5 | +750 | Under 163.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Lynx have the best record in the WNBA at 30-8. They are close to clinching the first seed in the WNBA playoffs and the home-court advantage that comes with it.
- Connecticut is no longer at the bottom of the WNBA standings. Thanks to a recent hot streak the Sun are 11th out of 13 teams and have jumped ahead of the Chicago Sky and Dallas Wings in the standings.
- Health: Minnesota lists no key injuries. Olivia Nelson-Ododa is questionable and Bria Hartley is doubtful for Connecticut going into this matchup.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Past meetings: Minnesota leads the season series 2-0 with wins of 76-70 on May 23 and 102-63 on June 29. Both of those wins came in Minneaota.
- ATS records: Minnesota is 22-15-1 ATS for the season. Connecticut enters this game at 22-16 ATS.
- Home/road splits: Minnesota is 12-6 away from home. Connecticut is 6-12 at home in 2025.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offense and defense: The Lynx are number one in the WNBA in offensive and defensive rating. Connecticut is last in the league in offensive rating and 10th out of 13 teams in defensive rating.
- Pace of play: Both of these teams play at below-average paces this season. The Lynx are better at scoring in transition but both teams are happy to play in the half-court.
Lynx vs Sun Model Projection
Score Projection: Minnesota 90 – Connecticut 78
Win Probability: Minnesota 92%, Connecticut 8%
Final Thoughts
I don’t think that the Connecticut Sun are going to pull of a monumental upset with a win at home here. But I do think that the Sun can do enough to keep this game inside of the point spread. The Sun have been playing some respectable basketball lately and have climbed out of the basement in the WNBA in defensive rating.
I think that the improved defense of the Sun will at least make the Lynx earn what they get offensively. From there, I expect the duo of Tina Charles and Marina Mabrey to do enough on offense to help their team cover the number.
